The New York Mets (75-40) head to Truist Park Monday to start a 4-game series with the Atlanta Braves (70-46) at 7:20 p.m. ET.

Season series: The Mets lead 8-4

New York is 8-2 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a 3-1 series victory vs. Atlanta Aug. 5-7. The Mets beat the Philadelphia Phillies in the rubber match of their 3-game set Sunday 6-0.

Atlanta is 7-3 SU in the last 10 and rides a 6-game winning streak after losing 3 consecutive games to N.Y.

Mets at Braves projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Spencer Strider 

Carrasco is 13-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 124 1/3 IP across 22 starts.

• Last start: Won 6-2 Tuesday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 9 K
• 2022 vs. the Braves: 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA (14 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 3 BB and 11 K in 2 starts

Strider is 6-4 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 13.9 K/9 in 89 2/3 IP over 13 starts and 11 relief appearances.

• Last start: Lost 5-2 Sunday at the Mets with 2 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 5 K
• 2022 vs. the Mets: 0-1 with a 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 5 BB and 13 K in 2 starts

Mets at Braves odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Braves -1.5 (+130)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Braves 7, Mets 3

Money line

LEAN BRAVES (-160) because they’ve been steamed up by sharp action even though Carrasco has looked a lot better vs. Atlanta this season than Strider against the Mets (+130).

Roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Braves while nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Mets, according to Pregame.com. Typically, you want to follow the cash when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than the average Joe.

Also, Carrasco’s numbers dip on the road. He’s 5-3 in 9 road starts with a 4.41 ERA (3.35 home ERA) with 7 HR allowed compared to 6 HR allowed in 13 home starts.

I’d only “FLAT-BET” the BRAVES (-160) instead of betting $16 to win $10.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Braves -1.5 (+130) isn’t a big enough payout considering the Mets +1.5 (-160) are red-hot entering this game and N.Y. is 13-8 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-125) because several O/U situational trends for both teams suggest a higher-scoring affair.

Also, Truist Park ranks 12th in park factor per Statcast and there are hitter-friendly weather conditions forecasted Monday including temperatures in the low-90s and nearly a double-digit mph breeze at the batters’ backs.

BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup