New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

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The New York Yankees (61-24) wrap up their 4-game series with the Boston Red Sox (46-39) at Fenway Park on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball with the 1st pitch set for 7:08 p.m. ET.

N.Y. won the first 2 games of this series by a combined score of 18-10, but Boston bounced back with a 6-5 win in extra innings Saturday.

The Yankees lead the season series 4-2 and have a plus-9 run differential in those meetings.

Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Taillon is 9-2 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 89 1/3 IP over 16 starts.

Last start: Lost 5-2 Tuesday at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 2 HR, 0 BB and 5 K.
2021 vs. the Red Sox: 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 0 HR and 5.1 K/9 in 3 starts.
2022 road splits: 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.035 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 in 7 starts

Pivetta is 8-6 with a 3.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP over 17 starts.

Last start: Lost 8-4 Tuesday at home vs. the Tampa Bay Rays with 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 4 K.
2022 vs. the Yankees: One start, a 4-2 loss April 9 in N.Y. with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 3 BB and 4 K.
2022 home splits: 4-3 with a 3.78 ERA (47 2/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 4 HR and 8.3 K/9 in 8 starts.

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

Money line (ML): Yankees -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -130)

Yankees at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Red Sox 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the YANKEES (-135) instead of betting to win 1 unit because there’s a suspicious line freeze in the betting market since money has poured in on N.Y.’s ML according to Pregame.com, but the number hasn’t budged off the opener.

The Yankees have a 3-phase edge over the Red Sox (+110) in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Taillon has far more impressive basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. Boston than Pivetta against N.Y. Also, the Yankees’ bullpen is 2nd in ERA and 1st in home runs allowed per 9 innings, according to FanGraphs.

Finally, N.Y.’s lineup leads MLB in several advanced hitting stats vs. right-handed pitching such as wRC+, ISO and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Yankees -1.5 (+120) just isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 39-41 RL as favorites and the Red Sox +1.5 (-145) are 23-12 RL as underdogs.

Also, Boston’s RL has been increased due to sharp action with a slight majority of the cash being on the Red Sox but nearly 60% of the bets placed on the Yankees, according to Pregame.com.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (+105) because both ballclubs are sending out bottom-of-the-rotation starters, the Over has cashed in 5 of the last 7 Yankees-Red Sox meetings and 4 consecutive Overs have been played in Boston.

But, N.Y.’s ML is my favorite look in this game and the Over feels somewhat “square” since the Under is a lot more expensive.

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