New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and predictions

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The New York Yankees (40-16) wrap up their 3-game series with the Minnesota Twins (33-25) at Target Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota evened the series with an 8-1 victory Wednesday, snapping New York’s 7-game winning streak. It was a rare rough outing for Yankees SP Nestor Cortes, who surrendered 4 ER on 7 H (2 HR) in 4 1/3 IP with 4 K.

Season series: Tied 1-1 but the Twins have a plus-1 run differential.

Yankees at Twins projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Dylan Bundy

Cole is 5-1 with a 2.78 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 in 64 2/3 IP over 11 starts.

Last start: Won 13-0 Friday at home vs. the Detroit Tigers with 7 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB and 9 K.
2021 vs. the Twins: 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 15 K in 2 starts.

Bundy is 3-3 with a 5.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 42 IP over 9 starts.

Last start: Lost 12-3 Saturday at the Toronto Blue Jays with 2 1/3 IP, 6 R (5 ER), 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 2 K.
2021 vs. the Yankees: One start while pitching for the Los Angeles Angels, a 5-3 win in N.Y. with 1 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 1 HR 4 H, 0 BB and 2 K.

Yankees at Twins odds and lines

Money line (ML): Yankees -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Twins +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-120) | Twins +1.5 (+100)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Yankees at Twins picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Twins 2

Money line

LEAN YANKEES (-220).

That said, N.Y.’s lineup is more productive vs. right-handed pitching, the Yankees’ bullpen is better and Cole is one of the best pitchers in baseball while Bundy is a middle-of-the-rotation guy, at best.

Furthermore, Cole’s advanced pitching stats vs. Minnesota are a lot more impressive than Bundy’s vs. N.Y.

Cole has a .179/.241/.286 expected batting average, wOBA (xwOBA), slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 31.5 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV) in 54 plate appearances (PA) against active Twins, per Statcast.

Bundy has a .290/.398/.563 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 28.2 K% and 91.3 mph EV in 131 PA vs. current Yankees hitters.

Also, Cole has dominated the Twins throughout his career while the Yankees have owned Bundy since he pitched for the Baltimore Orioles from 2012-19.

Cole is 3-0 vs. Minnesota with a 0.95 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 3 career starts. Bundy is 2-6 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 12 career starts vs. N.Y.

But, we are getting the worst of the number with the YANKEES (-210) because the market has already steamed N.Y.’s ML up from a -175 opener, per Pregame.com.

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN YANKEES -1.5 (-120).

This ticket should cash based on all the previous analyses and the Twins +1.5 (+100) are just 3-6 RL as home underdogs.

But, 3 of N.Y.’s 8 wins in Cole starts were by a single run, the Yankees are 26-26 RL as favorites and paying tax on a RL vs. a 1st-place team probably has a bad return on investment.

LEAN YANKEES -1.5 (-120).

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 8.5 (-115).

Most of the market is betting the Over 8.5 (-107) and there are a lot of Over-friendly trends such as Yankees-Twins are 11-8 O/U when these 2 starters take the hill and the total is 34-15-2 O/U in their last 51 meetings.

But, it’s probably sharper to fade a lopsided market betting an Over in a Yankees game than it is to follow it.

It’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because there’s a chance this total gets up to 9 and which point I’d put 0.75 units on the Under.

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