The Philadelphia Phillies (25-29) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (33-23) Tuesday for the start of a 3-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly is riding a 4-game winning streak, which includes a 3-game sweep at home of the Los Angeles Angeles last weekend after Friday’s firing of Joe Girardi as manager.

Milwaukee lost its prior 3 games as part of a 4-game home series with the San Diego Padres and the Brewers are just 4-6 overall in their last 10 games.

Season series: Milwaukee leads 2-1 with a plus-1 run differential in those meetings.

Phillies at Brewers projected starters

LHP Ranger Suarez vs. RHP Jason Alexander  

Suarez is 4-3 with a 4.69 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 48 IP across 10 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in Tuesday’s 7-4 win at home vs. the San Francisco Giants with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 5 K.
• 2022 vs. the Brewers: No-decision in Philly’s 4-2 home win April 22 with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 4 K.

Alexander (0-0, 2.57 ERA) is making his 2nd MLB start. He picked up a no-decision Wednesday in Milwaukee’s 4-3 loss, allowing 3 R (2 ER), 7 H, 3 BB with 3 K.

Phillies at Brewers odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Phillies at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Brewers 4

Money line

LEAN PHILLIES (-105).

Suarez’s advanced pitching numbers have regressed year over year but Milwaukee’s lineup struggles vs. lefties and Alexander is facing a loaded Philly lineup in just his 2nd career start.

The Brewers are 9-11 straight up (SU) vs. lefty starters and their lineup ranks 28th in wRC+ (82), 23rd in wOBA (.288) and 18th in BB/K rate (0.38) vs. left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the PHILLIES (-105) because Suarez is a bottom-of-the-rotation guy, Milwaukee’s bullpen is much better than Philly’s and the Brewers are 15-9 SU at home.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’m not confident enough to lay it with the Phillies -1.5 (+155) and wouldn’t bet the Brewers +1.5 (-190) and Philly’s ML.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-112).

Sharp money has steamed this total up from an 8-run opener up to the current number (per Pregame.com), Philly is 17-7 O/U on the road and 7-2 O/U in Suarez’s 9 starts.

That said, it’s only a LEAN OVER 8.5 (-112) because both lineups struggle vs. their respective opponent’s pitch handedness and the Brewers were shut out twice last weekend.

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