The Chicago Cubs (23-32) stop by Oriole Park at Camden Yards Tuesday for the opener of a 2-game interleague set with the Baltimore Orioles (23-33). First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Chicago is 4-6 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games and lost 3 games of a 4-game home series with the St. Louis Cardinals Friday-Sunday.

Baltimore is also 4-6 SU in the last 10, losing two straight home series 2-1 to the Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners after splitting the final 4-games of a 5-game series win at the Boston Red Sox May 27-30.

Cubs at Orioles projected starters

RHP Keegan Thompson vs. RHP Kyle Bradish  

Thompson is 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 45 1/3 IP over 4 starts and 8 relief appearances.

• Last start: Win, 7-5, Thursday at home vs. the St. Louis Cardinals with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 3 K.

Bradish is 1-3 with a 6.82 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 33 IP over 7 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in 9-2 home win vs. the Seattle Mariners Wednesday with 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 6 K.

Cubs at Orioles odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Orioles -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs -1.5 (+135) | Orioles +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Cubs at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 7, Orioles 3

Money line

BET the CUBS (-115).

Thompson has better advanced pitching numbers than Bradish, Chicago’s lineup is more productive against righties than Baltimore’s and there’s been some sharp line movement towards the Cubs.

Bradish grades in the 15th percentile or worse in expected ERA (xERA), exit velocity (EV), hard-hit rate barrel rate and expected batting (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, per Statcast. Also, none of Bradish’s 4 pitches have a minus-run value (RV).

On the other hand, most of Thompson’s pitching peripherals have improved year over year and Thompson grades in the 72nd percentile or better in xERA, EV, hard-hit rate and xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line. Also, 3 of Thompson’s 5 pitches have a minus-RV and none have a plus-RV.

Chicago’s lineup is better than Baltimore’s vs. right-handed pitching by wRC+ (100-92), wOBA (.316-.296), BB/K rate (0.43-0.32) and hard-hit rate (30.4-29.2%), according to FanGraphs.

The Cubs opened at -105 (according to Pregame.com) but are getting pricier. This line movement is noteworthy because who’s moving the line for a Cubs-Orioles game Tuesday during the NBA and NHL playoffs? Answer: Sharps.

BET the CUBS (-115).

Run line/Against the spread

LEAN CUBS -1.5 (+135).

It’s only a “lean” because both teams have played in a bunch of 1-run games, each bullpen is solid, Chicago is just 1-3 RL as a road favorite and Baltimore is 18-8 RL as a home underdog.

However, Chicago does have a 3-phase edge over the Orioles in starting and relief pitching and hitting so there’s a smidge of value in the CUBS -1.5 (+135).

Over/Under

PASS.

The situational trends don’t provide much of a clue and this is a sharp total.

If anything, I “lean” towards the Under since Camden Yards has been more pitcher-friendly this year, the Cubs are 1-5 O/U after a day off and the weather forecast is predicting double-digit mph winds blowing in from left-center field.

PASS.

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