The Baltimore Orioles (22-32) host the Cleveland Guardians (23-24) Saturday at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the 2nd game of a 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET.

Cleveland beat Baltimore in the series opener 6-3 Friday as the Guardians 3-through 5-batters (3B Jose Ramirez, 2B Owen Miller and 1B Josh Naylor) combined to hit 7-for-14 with 3 doubles and 6 RBIs. Friday’s Guardians-Orioles meeting was their 1st meeting of the year.

Guardians at Orioles projected starters

RHP Triston McKenzie vs. RHP Tyler Wells

McKenzie is 3-4 with a 2.65 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 51 IP over 8 starts and 1 relief appearance.

• Last start: Loss, 2-1, Sunday at the Detroit Tigers with 7 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 8 K.

Wells is 2-4 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 43 2/3 IP over 10 starts.

• Last start: Win, 10-0, Monday at the Boston Red Sox with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K.
• 2022 home splits: 1-0 with a 2.29 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 14 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 14 K across 4 starts.

Guardians at Orioles odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Orioles +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+135) | Orioles +1.5 (-170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Guardians at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 4, Guardians 3

Money line

BET ORIOLES (+100) because there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” scenario in the betting market with the presumed sharp money backing Baltimore, Wells has been more effective at home and McKenzie struggles on 5 days of rest.

A slight majority of the money is on the Orioles whereas nearly 70% of the bets placed are on the Guardians according to pregame.com at the time of writing. It’s typically wise to follow the money when it’s counter to the public since professional bettors put up more cash than your average Joe.

Five days off is by far McKenzie’s worst rest-based pitching split. McKenzie is 3-8 when pitching on five days’ rest with a 5.73 ERA (4.10 career ERA) and 1.27 WHIP (1.06 career WHIP) over 16 starts.

Wells pitches well at home (stats written above) and grades higher than McKenzie in several advanced pitching metrics including hard-hit rate, exit velocity, barrel rate, chase rate, expected ERA and BB%, per Statcast.

BET ORIOLES (+100).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS because I’m not confident enough in Baltimore to lay it with the Orioles +1.5 (-170) since the Guardians are 6-3 RL as road favorites, which includes their 6-3 win in the series opener Friday.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (+100) because we also have a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market for the total of Guardians-Orioles.

Around 85% of the cash is on the Under while roughly the same percentage of bets are on the Over but the oddsmakers have lowered the total from an 8.5-run opener, which suggests the Under is the sharp play.

Each bullpen is also top-10 in both ERA and FIP (per FanGraphs) and these teams have a combined 5-12 O/U record when these starters take the mound.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) because we are getting the worst of the number and the Over has cashed in 4 consecutive Guardians-Orioles meetings.

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