The Baltimore Orioles (20-29) are at Fenway Park Monday for the rubber match of their 5-game series with the Boston Red Sox (23-25). First pitch is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Orioles vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Baltimore leads 4-3, but Boston has a plus-3 run differential in those meetings. This series is tied 2-2.

Boston blasted Baltimore 12-2 Sunday and the Red Sox had 10 extra-base hits — 5 home runs and 5 doubles.

Orioles at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Tyler Wells vs. LHP Rich Hill

Wells is 1-4 with a 4.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 37 2/3 IP over 9 starts.

• Last start: Lost 2-0 Wednesday at the New York Yankees with 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB and 2 K.
• 2021 road splits: 0-4 with a 6.50 ERA (18 IP, 13 ER), 24 H, 4 HR, 2 BB and 11 K in 5 starts.

Hill is 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 35 IP over 8 starts.

• Last start: Lost 3-1 Wednesday at the Chicago White Sox with 5 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB and 1 K.
• 2022 vs. the Orioles: One start, a no-decision in Boston’s 3-1 win in Baltimore April 29  with 4 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 0 BB and 4 K.

Orioles at Red Sox odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Orioles +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-135) | Red Sox -1.5 (+110)
• Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Orioles at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 7, Red Sox 6

Money line

Slight LEAN to the ORIOLES (+140) because everyone is betting the Red Sox (-175) and they shouldn’t be this big of a favorite with Hill on the mound.

Historically, lefty pitchers struggle at Fenway Park more than the righties. In 3 starts at home this season, Hill is 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA (2.70 road ERA), 1.46 WHIP (1.03 road WHIP) and 3 HR allowed (1 HR on the road).

Also, Baltimore’s bullpen is much more reliable than Boston’s. Baltimore relievers have a better ERA, xFIP, HR allowed per 9 innings, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, exit velocity and chase rate than Boston’s (per FanGraphs).

But, Baltimore is in the basement of the AL East and has lost 5 straight as road underdogs with Wells on the mound, hence the LEAN ORIOLES (+140).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Orioles +1.5 (-135) is too expensive considering they are 12-14 RL as road underdogs and that 6 of the 7 Orioles-Red Sox meetings this season have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 10.5 (+100) only because Orioles-Red Sox is 3-7 O/U in their last 10 meetings and Baltimore is 2-7 O/U in Wells’ 9 starts despite his plus-4.00 ERA.

However, it’s going to be a warm day in Boston so the ball could be jumping off the bat at Fenway Park, Hill’s numbers are atrocious at home and Wells has a 6.50 ERA in 18 innings pitched over 4 road starts.

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