The Tampa Bay Rays (26-18) host the New York Yankees (32-13) Friday in the 2nd of their 4-game series at Tropicana Field with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: N.Y. leads 1-0.

The Yankees beat the Rays 7-2 Thursday in the series opener thanks in part to a gem from SP Nestor Cortes (8 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K). Yankees OF Aaron Judge went 1-for-3 with 2 RBIs, a stolen base and run scored.

Yankees at Rays projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. LHP Jeffrey Springs

Taillon is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 1.1 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 42 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

• Last start: No-decision in N.Y.’s 3-1 home loss May 22 to the Chicago White Sox with 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 7 K on 94 pitches.
• 2021 vs. the Rays: 0-2 with a 4.85 ERA (13 IP, 7 ER), 7 H, 2 HR, 6 BB and 16 K in 3 starts.

Springs is 2-1 with a 1.32 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 27 1/3 IP across 4 starts and 8 relief appearances.

• Last start: Won 6-2 Saturday at the Baltimore Orioles with 5 2/3 scoreless IP, 1 H, 4 BB and 7 K on 80 pitches.
• 2021 vs. the Yankees: 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA (8 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 4 BB and 9 K in 6 relief appearances.

Yankees at Rays odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rays -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-210) | Rays -1.5 (+170)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Yankees at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Rays 2

Money line

LEAN YANKEES (+105) only because Taillon’s numbers dip on the road, Springs has been lights out thus far and the Under is my favorite bet in this game.

N.Y. has a better lineup and bullpen than Tampa and Taillon looks comfier in his 2nd season as a Yankee. Taillon’s hard-hit rate, BB% and chase rate have all significantly improved since 2021, per Statcast.

Also, the Yankees are 6-2 overall in their last 8 visits to Tampa and this is a worse version of the Rays because of the injuries to their pitching staff.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS. N.Y. +1.5 (-210) is just too pricey to sprinkle on their RL and I prefer to bet the Under instead.

N.Y. is 10-9 RL as road favorites and the Rays are 9-16 RL at home (2-2 RL as home favorites).

Over/Under

RISK 1 unit on the UNDER 7.5 (-130) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price.

According to Pregame.com, there’s a “Pros vs. Joe’s” situation in the betting market since more money is on the Under but bets have been placed on the Over. It’s wiser to follow the money since sharps put up more dough than your average Joe.

N.Y. is 16-24 O/U as the favorite, Tampa is 4-6-1 O/U as the underdog and the Rays are 1-3 O/U in Springs’ 4 starts.

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