The New York Yankees (31-13) head to Tropicana Field Thursday to play the American League East rival Tampa Bay Rays (26-17) at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York is 6-4 straight up (SU) in its last 10 games, which includes back-to-back victories vs. the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday-Wednesday after dropping the Monday opener following a 2-1 series loss to the Chicago White Sox this past weekend.

Tampa won both of a 2-game interleague series with the Miami Marlins Tuesday-Wednesday after losing 2 of 3 contests in Baltimore last week and is also 6-4 SU in its last 10 outings.

The Rays beat the Yankees 11-8 in last year’s season series and Tampa had a staggering plus-48 run differential in those meetings.

Yankees at Rays projected starters

LHP Nestor Cortes vs. LHP Ryan Yarbrough

Cortes is 3-1 with a 1.80 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 in 45 IP across 8 starts.

• Last start: Win, 7-5, at home vs. the Chicago White Sox Saturday with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 HR, 0 BB and 7 K.
• 2021 vs. the Rays: 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA (9 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 0 BB and 10 K over 2 starts.
• vs. Rays on the current roster: 2.70 FIP with a .178/.259/.367 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line, 27.9 K% and 85.7 mph exit velocity (EV) in 43 plate appearances (PA).

Yarbrough is 0-0 with a 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 7 ER), 18 H, 1 HR, 7 BB and 12 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance.

• Last start: No-decision in Tampa’s 5-1 home loss to the Toronto Blue Jays May 14 with 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB and 2 K.
• 2021 vs. the Yankees: 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA (17 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 10 H, 2 BB and 14 K.
• vs. Yankees on the current roster: 4.01 FIP with a .257/.317/.420 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line, 13.5 K% and 84.8 mph EV in 96 PA.

Yankees at Rays odds and lines

• Money line (ML): Yankees -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rays +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+140) | Rays +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Yankees at Rays picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Rays 2

Money line

GIMME the YANKEES (-125) because they have a 3-phase edge over the Rays in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Cortes’ pitching peripherals support his impressive basic starts as he ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and K%, according to Statcast.

N.Y.’s bats are also more productive vs. left-handed pitching than Tampa’s. The Yankees rank 2nd in wRC+ (123), 5th in wOBA (.333) and 4th in hard-hit rate (33.8%), per FanGraphs. The Rays have a 108 wRC+ (ranked 12th), .305 wOBA (15th) and a 28.5% hard-hit rate (19th).

Tampa’s bullpen has regressed year over year, mostly due to injuries, whereas New York’s bullpen is a top-5 unit. The Yankees’ relievers are 2nd in FIP (3.10) and 5th in home runs allowed per 9 innings (0.62). The Rays’ relievers are 20th in FIP (4.07) and 28th in home runs allowed per 9 (1.24).

BET 1 unit on the YANKEES (-125).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS because the Yankees -1.5 (+140) would have to be north of +160 to take a stab since N.Y. is 20-22 RL as a favorite while Tampa Bay is 8-2 RL as an underdog. Four of the last 8 Yankees-Rays meetings have been decided by a single run.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-130) because there’s a line freeze in the betting market, the Yankees are 7-11 O/U as road favorites, the Rays are 3-6-1 O/U as underdogs and Tropicana Field is a notorious pitcher-friendly ballpark and ranks 24th in run factor.

The Yankees ML is my favorite wager in this game but there’s a little value on the UNDER 7.5 (-130).

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