The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors host the No. 4 seed Dallas Mavericks Friday at Chase Center for Game 2 of their Western Conference Finals series. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Golden State routed Dallas 112-87 in Game 1 Wednesday as the Warriors outshot the Mavs from everywhere on the floor and held Dallas to a 14-to-13 assist-to-turnover rate.
The Warriors defended Mavs All-Star PG Luka Doncic very well in Game 1, holding him to just 20 points on 6-for-17 (33.3%) shooting and forcing him into 7 turnovers.
Dallas is 3-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Golden State this season with the Over/Under (O/U going 2-3.
Mavericks at Warriors odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Mavericks +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Warriors -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Mavericks +6.5 (-112) | Warriors -6.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 213.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Mavericks at Warriors key injuries
Mavericks
- None
Warriors
- F Andre Iguodala (back) out
- SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out
Mavericks at Warriors picks and predictions
Prediction
Warriors 107, Mavericks 103
Money line
SPRINKLE on MAVERICKS (+220) if at all
They are just 10-19 SU as road underdogs, while the Warriors are 36-9 SU as home favorites.
Dallas’ spread is a sharp play and this ML’s payout is juicy. It’s hard to disregard Game 1’s lopsided result but that’s what you have to do in backing the Mavericks Friday.
Game 1 was a lot more of a toss-up than the final score indicates, according to ShotQuality.com. The win probability was 50/50 and Dallas actually had a better “shot quality score” than Golden State, which is ShotQuality.com’s proprietary stat.
If the Mavs hit some of their 3-pointers, Game 1 looks a lot different. A few more Dallas 3’s would cause Golden State’s defense to close out harder on shooters and open up driving lanes for the Mavs’ ball-handlers.
The Warriors obviously have edges over the Mavs in coaching, continuity, big-game experience and depth.
Again, Dallas’ spread is my preferred wager, but there’s some value in MAVERICKS (+220).