The Cincinnati Reds and the Cleveland Guardians meet in MLB action from Progressive Field on Tuesday.

The Cincinnati Reds come into this one on the heels of their 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh in their series finale in their last game. Tommy Pham has a team-high 28 hits with a .239 batting average while Brandon Drury has a team-high 7 home runs and 22 RBIs with 8 doubles as well. Tyler Naquin has 10 doubles and Kyle Farmer has 9 doubles while Colin Moran has 21 RBIs as well this season. Connor Overton will get the start here and is 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 8 strikeouts this season.

The Cleveland Guardians will look to rebound from a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Minnesota Twins in their last matchup.  Jose Ramirez leads the Guardians with 36 hits, 8 home runs and 33 RBIs along with a .290 batting average while Owen Miller has a .298 batting average with 11 doubles as well this season. Ramirez also has 8 doubles and Steven Kwan has 27 hits with 6 doubles as well as a .284 batting average this season. Ramirez, Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario each have a pair of triples as well on the year. Zach Plesac will start this one and is 1-3 with a 4.68 ERA and 20 strikeouts this season.

Cincinnati is 20-41 in their last 61 games as an underdog and 17-38 in their last 55 games overall while the over is 7-1 in their last 8 games following a loss. Cleveland is 4-1 in their last 5 home games and 35-16 in their last 51 games as a favorite while the over is 5-0 in their last 5 series-opening games.

I get the case to be made for either side here, but I’m leaning towards the value with the Reds here. Cleveland’s been able to string some solid offense together, but Plesac has been pitching pretty poorly as of late, enough to cancel out whatever solid offense the Guardians are able to put out. Connor Overton has a small sample size, but he seems to be pitching pretty well as of late and I think he can guide the Reds to a win so give me Cincinnati and the plus money here.