The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet Sunday in game 4 of the East First Round NHL Playoffs at the Amalie Arena. The Toronto Maple Leafs look for another win to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. The Tampa Bay Lightning need a win here to even up the series at 2-2.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are averaging 4.33 goals per game and are scoring on 13.3 percent of their power play opportunities. Mitchell Marner leads Toronto with 2 goals, Auston Matthews has 3 assists and William Nylander has 11 shots on goal. Defensively, the Toronto Maple Leafs are allowing 2.33 goals per game and are killing 73.3 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Jack Campbell has given up 7 goals on 92 shots faced.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are averaging 2.33 goals per game and are scoring on 26.7 percent of their power play opportunities. Nikita Kucherov leads Tampa Bay with 1 goal, Victor Hedman has 3 assists and Brayden Point has 12 shots on goal. Defensively, the Tampa Bay Lightning are allowing 4.33 goals per game and are killing 86.7 percent of their opponent’s power plays. Andrei Vasilevskiy has given up 11 goals on 100 shots faced.

The Maple Leafs are 7-3 in their last 10 road games and 54-24 in their last 78 overall. The Lightning are 5-0 in their last 5 Sunday games and 45-21 in their last 66 games as a favorite. The over is 40-16-7 in Maple Leafs last 63 overall. The over is 10-2 in Lightning last 12 overall. The Maple Leafs are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay and 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a talented team that’s hard to turn down in the favorite role, and we also have to consider them, winning six of the light nine meetings against Tampa. However, the Tampa Bay Lightning are way too consistent and way too experienced to go down this quietly. If the Maple Leafs are going to win this series, they’re going to have to work for it. Also, the Lightning have won 69.6 percent of their last 112 home games. We’re getting a cheap price. Give me the Lightning at home to even things up.