Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles, ppd.

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Update 7:17 p.m. ET: Friday’s game was postponed because of rain. It will be made up as part of a doubleheader Sunday.

Original column below (published 2:56 p.m. ET)

The Kansas City Royals (8-15) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to start a 3-game series with the Baltimore Orioles (10-16). First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Orioles odds with MLB picks and predictions.

K.C. is 3-7 in the last 10 games with back-to-back series losses to the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees after winning 2 of 3 vs. the White Sox in Chicago last week.

Baltimore is 4-6 in its last 10 games, but won back-to-back games over the Minnesota Twins Wednesday-Thursday to split their 4-game series.

Royals at Orioles projected starters

RHP Carlos Hernandez vs. RHP Jordan Lyles 

Hernandez (0-1, 6.00 ERA) lost 3-0 Saturday to the Yankees, allowing 3 R (2 ER) on 4 H and 5 BB with 3 K in 4 IP. He has a 5.32 FIP, 1.89 WHIP and 4.0 K/9 in 4 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Orioles: 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA (10 IP, 2 ER), 6 H, 5 BB and 7 K in 2 starts.
  • vs. Orioles on the current roster: 3.79 FIP with a .211 expected batting average (xBA), .324 expected wOBA (xwOBA), .433 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.0 K% and 93.5 mph exit velocity (EV) in 23 plate appearances (PA).

Lyles (2-2, 4.50 ERA) beat the Boston Red Sox 9-5 Sunday, hurling 6 IP with 1 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 6 K. He has a 4.98 FIP, 1.62 WHIP and 7.3 K/9 in 5 starts.

  • 2021 vs. Royals: 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 12 H, 0 BB and 12 K in 2 starts while pitching for the Texas Rangers.
  • vs. Royals on the current roster: 5.33 FIP with a .243 xBA, .282 xwOBA, .428 xSLG, 15.0 K% and 88.3 mph EV in 40 PA.

Royals at Orioles odds and lines

  • Money line (ML): Royals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Orioles -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-190) | Orioles -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Royals at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 5, Royals 2

Money line

BET the ORIOLES (-130) as a fade against the Royals (-105) more than anything. K.C.’s hitting and relief pitching are worse than Baltimore’s and the Royals are 2-6 on the road while the Orioles are 7-6 at home.

Baltimore’s lineup has a much better wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate vs. right-handed pitching than K.C.’s, according to FanGraphs. Also, the Royals’ bullpen is bottom-5 in MLB in xFIP and K/BB rate and last in WHIP.

BET 1 UNIT on the ORIOLES (-130).

Run line/Against the spread

SPRINKLE on the ORIOLES -1.5 (+155), if at all, because their hitting has some pop vs. righties and K.C.’s bullpen is just too unreliable.

But the Orioles were 0-11 RL as home favorites last season and this is Baltimore’s first game as a RL home favorite this year. Thus it’s a weird spot for the Orioles so don’t go hard if you bet their RL.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (+100) because the weather forecast is predicting nearly 15 mph winds blowing in from right-center field and because the Orioles are 3-9-1 O/U at home this year.

However, both starters have poor pitching peripherals, K.C.’s bullpen is terrible and Camden Yards had the fifth-highest park factor last season.

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