Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning Game 3 odds, picks and predictions

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The Toronto Maple Leafs (1-1) and Tampa Bay Lightning (1-1) meet for Game 3 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series Friday at Amalie Arena in Tampa. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we look at the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.

The Maple Leafs opened the series at home with a bang as they pounded the Lightning 5-0 in Game 1. However, the defending champs turned the tables with a 5-3 win Wednesday in Game 2. The good news for the Leafs is that C Auston Matthews and RW Mitch Marner have had a good series so far after being invisible in past playoff failures.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy helped the Lightning bounce back, as this team hasn’t lost consecutive playoff games since the opening-round loss in the 2020 NHL Playoffs against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Maple Leafs at Lightning odds and lines

  • Money line: Maple Leafs -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Lightning -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Maple Leafs +1.5 (-260) | Lightning -1.5 (+185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

Maple Leafs at Lightning projected goalies

Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season) vs Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season)

Campbell posted his second career postseason shutout in Game 1, but the Lightning offense exploded for 5 goals to saddle him with the home loss Wednesday. While he was 19-5-1 with a 2.22 GAA and .924 SV% with 4 of his 5 shutouts at home, he was an ordinary 12-4-5 with a 3.14 GAA and .904 SV% in 21 road starts.

Vasilevskiy showed out at home this season, going 20-8-4 with a 2.23 GAA and .921 SV% with both of his shutouts. He allowed just one goal on 37 shots in his most recent home outing against Toronto in an easy 8-1 win April 21.

Money line

The LIGHTNING (-115) are slight favorites, but they should be able to get the job at home and seize their first series lead. Tampa Bay has picked up 57 victories in its last 81 games as a home favorite. The Lightning rarely lose at home, especially in the postseason.

Against the spread

The Maple Leafs +1.5 (-260) are rather costly if you would like some insurance, as you must risk more than two and a half times your potential return. That’s way too expensive.

AVOID.

Over/Under

OVER 6.5 (+100) is the play at even money. The Over is a ridiculous 21-5-2 in the last 28 games on the road for the Leafs, including 7-1-1 in their last 9 outings as road underdogs.

The Over has cashed in 5 of the last 6 home games for the Lightning, and nine of their last 11 overall. The Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these Atlantic Division rivals in Tampa, too.

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