No. 14 Colgate vs. No. 3 Wisconsin | NCAA Basketball Tournament Prediction, Preview & Odds

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My Bookie

How healthy is Wisconsin star and National Player of the Year candidate Johnny Davis? That likely will determine whether the third-seeded Badgers are upset by No. 14 Colgate in first-round NCAA Tournament Midwest Region action on Friday night. The Badgers are solid favorites on the NCAAB odds.

How to Bet Colgate vs. Wisconsin NCAA Basketball Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Colgate?

Colgate (23-11) was the Patriot League regular-season champion and beat Navy 74-58 in the tournament final on March 9. The Raiders closed out the first half on a 28-11 run to seize control of the Patriot League championship game and survived a furious Navy second half comeback. The win was the second straight Patriot League championship for the Raiders and the third in the past four seasons.

Jack Ferguson who led the Raiders in scoring in all three tournament games had 17 points and was named the tournament Most Valuable Player. Nelly Cummings followed with 15 while Tucker Richardson and Jeff Woodward had a dozen each. Oliver Lynch-Daniels was the fifth Raider in double figures with 10. Richardson and Cummings were each named to the All-Tournament Team.

It was Colgate’s 15th consecutive victory, a streak that started on Jan. 31. The league’s regular-season champ was No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in defensive efficiency, respectively, in league play. Plus, the Raiders won their three conference tournament games by 54 points combined. About four out of every 10 field goal attempts by Colgate are 3s. Five Raiders are averaging double figures this season, led by Cummings (14.5). Colgate has had six different leading scorers in a game.

Colgate is 20-0 this season when its opponent scores less than 70 points and 3-11 when the opponent reaches the 70-point plateau. It enters tournament action ranked second in the country in 3-point field goal percentage (40.3), fifth in total assists (584), seventh in total 3-point field goals made (337), and ninth in assists per game (17.2). The Raiders are making their fifth overall appearance in the tournament and third under coach Matt Langel.

On the first-round draw against Wisconsin, Langel said: “The Big Ten is one of the best basketball conferences if not the single best conference in the country. Wisconsin has veteran, experienced players. They are extremely well coached and very disciplined – a lot of things that we’ve tried to model our program after – team over self and super consistent game in and game out.”

The two teams have met just once before, in 2011, and Wisconsin won that matchup 68-41. Wisconsin is Colgate’s first Big Ten matchup since the Raiders visited Penn State Dec. 8, 2018.

Why Bet on Wisconsin?

Wisconsin (24-7) tied for the Big Ten regular-season title but lost its conference tournament opener to Michigan State 69-63 in an upset. Still, it was a surprising season for UW, which was picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten. While a top-30 defense and one of America’s lowest turnover rates helped, the unexpected Wooden Award campaign of Johnny Davis (19.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG) is what changed Wisconsin’s fortunes.

Greg Gard was named Big Ten Coach of the Year for the second time in his career, and second in the last three seasons. He is just the second coach in UW history to win the award and first since 2015, joining four-time winner Bo Ryan (2002, ’03, ’13 and ’15). Davis became the fourth Badger to be named Big Ten Player of the Year, joining Frank Kaminsky (2015), Alando Tucker (2007) and Devin Harris (2004). Davis also was named first-team All-American, just third Badger to make the national first-team list in program history, joining Tucker (2007) and Kaminsky (2015) for that prestigious honor. Davis was a bit banged up down the stretch.

The Badgers are 15-3 in games decided by 6 or fewer points — the most “close” wins in D-I. Wisconsin leads the NCAA averaging just 8.5 turnovers per game. Wisconsin is averaging 70.7 ppg, which would be the team’s highest mark since 2016-17.

The Badgers are making their 26th trip to the Big Dance overall and are one of five schools to appear in 22 of the last 23 NCAA tournaments. Wisconsin is 39-24 (.619) all-time in the NCAA tournament, reaching four Final Fours and 10 Sweet 16s. The Badgers have made the Sweet 16 in six of the last 10 NCAA tournaments, reaching the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 during that stretch.

The No. 3 seed is UW’s highest seed since they received a No. 1 in 2015. The Badgers are 9-0 against teams seeded 13th or lower. UW is 12-6 (.667) against schools in the 2022 tournament field. Wisconsin and Purdue are the only programs with 12 wins against the field.

The Badgers have won 11 of their last 13 opening-round NCAA tournament games, holding teams to 57.7 points per game in those initial tourney games. Wisconsin has advanced to the Sweet 16 or better in 6 of the last 10 NCAA tournaments. Only Kentucky (7) has made more second weekend appearances over the decade.

The winner of the first-round matchup will face the winner of a game between No. 6 seed LSU and No. 11 seed Iowa State in the round of 32 on Sunday.

Game Trends

  • Raiders are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
  • Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
  • Badgers are 15-7-2 ATS in their last 24 NCAA Tournament games.
  • Badgers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as a favorite.
  • Badgers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.

Expert Prediction

  • Wisconsin 75, Colgate 66
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