New England vs Buffalo NFL Lines & Expert Analysis for Monday Night Football

Weather is definitely going to be a factor Monday night in Buffalo as the New England Patriots visit the Bills as there could be sleet as well as wind gusts of 40 mph or more. The NFL betting total has been drooping all week for this AFC East showdown.

How to Bet Patriots at Bills NFL Odds & TV Info

  • When: Monday, 8:15 PM ET
  • Where: Highmark Stadium
  • TV: ESPN
  • Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
  • Stream Option: ESPN app
  • Opening NFL Lines: Bills -3 (total 41)

Series History

Last season, the Patriots were swept by Buffalo for the first time since the 1999 season. The Patriots fell at Buffalo, 24-21, on Nov. 1 and then lost, 38-9, on Monday Night Football on Dec. 28 at Gillette Stadium. The last time the Patriots played at Buffalo in a Monday Night game was on Oct. 29, 2018 when the Patriots defeated the Bills, 25-6. This will be the 123rd meeting between the two teams. New England holds a 76-45-1 edge in the series and have won 35 of the last 42 games between the clubs dating back to 2000.

Why Bet on New England?

The Patriots, who enter with the NFL’s longest winning streak at six games, will attempt to claim their 35th winning season with a victory. It would be their 24th winning season in the 28 years of ownership under Robert Kraft and the 20th winning season in 22 seasons under head coach Bill Belichick.

The Patriots will play Buffalo in a Monday Night game for the sixth time (1995, 2009, 2015, 2018 and 2020). The Patriots are 4-1 against Buffalo in Monday Night games. The Patriots are 37-23-1 overall in Buffalo, including a 30-17 record at the newly-named Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Patriots’ 76 wins over the Bills is their highest victory total over any opponent, nine higher than their next highest win total against the New York Jets (71).

QB Mac Jones was 4-0 in November, joining Dak Prescott (4-0 in November 2016), Kyle Orton (4-0 in November 2005) and Ben Roethlisberger (4-0 in November 2004) as the only rookie quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to start and win all of their team’s games in the month. Each of the previous three rookies to do it led their teams to division titles, including Prescott, the last rookie quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs.

Last week, the Pats put safety Kyle Dugger on the reserve/COVID-19 list.  If vaccinated, Dugger will be eligible to return after testing negative two times, 24 hours apart. He had played on 81 percent of the Pats’ defensive snaps this year and has three interceptions plus four pass defenses. Dugger also contributes on special teams.

Once a lead back, Damien Harris has begun splitting carries with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson. Splitting carries between the two running backs has worked out well for the Patriots. While Stevenson has taken most of the snaps, Harris has been a vital complementary piece. On the season, he has 154 carries for 643 yards and eight touchdowns.

Why Bet on Buffalo?

In a matchup of two of the league’s top defenses, points and first downs should be at a premium. New England has allowed the NFL’s fewest points per game (15.8) while Buffalo ranks second (16.5). The Bills, meanwhile, have allowed the NFL’s fewest yards per game (275.2) and New England ranks fourth (316.7).

In Week 13 or later, Monday’s game marks just the fifth contest in the last 30 years involving a team ranking first in scoring defense against a team ranking first in fewest total yards allowed. In each of those games, a team advanced to at least its conference championship, including two Super Bowl champions: Denver in 2015 and Washington in 1991.

The Bills rush defense is a good one on paper: Only five teams allow fewer rushing yards per game than Buffalo, and six teams have seen fewer rushing attempts against them in 2021. No team has given up a lower expected points added (EPA) per rush than Buffalo through Week 12. The Bills have been gouged by the league’s best run offenses, though. In Week 6, Derrick Henry went for 143 yards and three scores against the Bills. And Jonathan Taylor exploded for 185 rushing yards and five total touchdowns against Buffalo in Week 11.

Quarterback Josh Allen has six games of four-or-more touchdown passes since the beginning of the 2020 season. Only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers (each with nine) have more such games in that span.

Buffalo will be without All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White the rest of the season after he was hurt in Week 12, suffering a torn ACL against the Saints. White has played an integral role as the team’s top cornerback. When the 2020 All-Pro has been the nearest defender this season, he is allowing a 50.8% completion percentage and 58.9 passer rating, both fourth-best among defensive backs with 50-plus targets this season. He has one interception and 41 tackles on the season, in addition to six passes defensed. White will be one of the toughest players on the team to replace, due to limited cornerback depth and the level of his talent.

Game Trends

  • Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
  • Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
  • Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
  • Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East.
  • Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Buffalo.

Expert Prediction

  • Bills 23, Patriots 17

 


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