Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions


The Minnesota </strong Twins (65-60) open a 2-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers (68-57) Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 8:10 p.m. ET.

Season series: Twins lead 2-0

The Twins have won 5 of their last 7 games extending their lead to 6 games over the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. Minnesota was last in action with a 2-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates Sunday.

The Brewers return home from a 9-game road trip in which all 3 of their series resulted in sweeps. They were on the winning end of 2 of those including a weekend set in Texas in which they outscored the Rangers 21-11.

Twins at Brewers projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Wade Miley

Ober (6-6 3.40 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.13 WHIP 1.7 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through 113 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision 5 IP 2 ER 4 H 3 BB 6 K in 5-3 win vs. Detroit Tigers last Tuesday
  • 2023 road stats: 4-3 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP 20 ER) with 10.5 K/9 across 8 starts
  • One career start vs. Brewers: Win 6 IP 2 ER 6 H 1 BB 7 K in 4-2 victory on June 14

Miley (6-3 3.05 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP 2.8 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 through 82 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss 5 IP 4 R (3 ER) 7 H 2 BB 2 K in 7-1 road loss at Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday
  • 2023 home stats: 4-1 3.07 ERA (44 IP 15 ER) with 5.9 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Twins: 1-0 4.18 ERA (23 2/3 IP 11 ER) with 9.1 K/9 in 4 starts and 1 relief appearance the most recent start coming in 2021

Twins at Brewers odds

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Brewers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Brewers +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Twins at Brewers picks and predictions


Twins 4 Brewers 3


Ober is sporting a 5.52 ERA across 31 IP over his last 6 starts but he has registered a 34/4 K/BB and that ERA has been inflated by a .400 BABIP and 18.2% HR/FB rate. He’s set to face a Milwaukee offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ vs RHP so look for him to keep its bats in check.

Miley has had an excellent season but in 3 starts since returning from an elbow injury he has recorded a weak 9/7 K/BB. Look for the TWINS (-105) to come out on top.

Run line/Against the spread

Miley doesn’t have electric stuff but as shown by his ERA he gets the job done. He has surrendered 3 ER or fewer in 14 of his 16 starts on the season and even if his team comes up short he should keep it close SKIP the Run line and look for value elsewhere.


We already noted Milwaukee’s struggles against right-handers and Minnesota has had similar issues vs. southpaws this season. The Twins rank 25th in wRC+ and 28th in OBP against lefties while whiffing at the 3rd highest rate.

Both starting pitchers are solid and should fare well against offenses they match up well against. Neither team is likely to put up a lot of runs in this game so while the total is a low one the Under still looks like the side to take. Either play UNDER 8 +100) OR TAKE THE ALTERNATIVE TOTAL UNDER 8.5 (-120).

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