Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

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SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Milwaukee Bucks (27-15) and Miami Heat (23-20) meet Saturday at Miami-Dade Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (ABC).

These teams met Thursday as the Heat covered the spread as 5.5-point home favorites 108-102 and we predicted this game correctly, almost down to the exact score. Miami G Gabe Vincent scored a career-high 28 points as the Heat improved to a season-best 3 games over .500. Milwaukee G Jrue Holiday finished with 24 points and a game-high 11 assists in the absence of F Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) who is questionable to return to the lineup Saturday.

The Bucks are 10-4 straight up after a loss.

These teams have alternated wins and losses over the last 5 meetings, dating back to last season.

Bucks at Heat odds

  • Moneyline (ML): Bucks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Bucks +4.5 (-115) | Heat -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 213.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Bucks at Heat key injuries

Bucks

  • F Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) questionable
  • F Khris Middleton (knee) out

Heat

  • G Tyler Herro (Achilles) questionable
  • G Kyle Lowry (knee) out
  • F Caleb Martin (quad) probable
  • F Duncan Robinson (finger) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Bucks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 103, Bucks 102

Moneyline

PASS.

The Heat (-170) should win again Saturday, but the price on their moneyline is a little high considering Milwaukee has the 2nd-best winning percentage in the league coming off a loss (71.4%). Bet the spread or total instead.

Against the spread

BET BUCKS +4.5 (-115).

The Bucks should bounce back after blowing a 15-point lead Thursday. The last time the Bucks blew a lead of 15 or more points was Dec. 28 in a 119-113 overtime loss at the Chicago Bulls. In Milwaukee’s next game on Dec. 30, it covered as a 7.5-point home favorite in a 123-114 win vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. Look for the Bucks to cover Saturday in a similar spot.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 213.5(-108).

The Under is 4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 5 games and 4-0 in Miami’s last 4 games following a win in its previous game. These teams historically play low-scoring games vs. each other as the Under is 23-9-1 in the last 33 meetings in Miami and Saturday should be another low-scoring affair.

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