The touchdown articles over the last two weeks have been profitable. In that span, we are 12-13 for +2.52U. The key has been to find heavily juiced favorites and adding in their team ML where possible, side from that that we are staying in the -110 to +140 range and avoiding the real long shots when possible.
We are fortunate enough to receive an EXCLUSIVE odds boost from DraftKings Sportsbook to use on an anytime touchdown scorer bet in the Sunday games. This boost will add +100 odds to the player picked if the original odds are +100 or better, so I will target more players with realistic odds.
I’ve been targeting weak red zone defenses and games with higher totals as well. Our degenerate parlay has come 1 leg short in the past two weeks as well, and I refuse to let up!
Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL (-120)
The game total on this is set at 49.5, one of the highest of the weekend. 56% of the Bears touchdowns allowed are rushing(31st) and that number jumps to 61% on the road. They’ve given up a rushing TD to the opposing RB in 6 straight games and that continues this Sunday.
AJ Brown, PHI (+115)
I’m very curious how Philly bounces back after their first loss of the season and AJ Brown specifically. He is coming off his worst game of the season and gets a Colts defense that is ranked 29th overall in DVOA against WR1s. This game total is at 45.5 and Brown should be on a mission. Love this at plus-odds.
Brian Robinson, WAS (+120)
Robinson is coming off his best performance of the season, one in which he scored on the goal line. The Texans rank 31st in rush DVOA and 56% of their TDs allowed are rushing. They’ve allowed a rushing TD to an opposing RB in an astounding 8/10 games and 4 straight. The Brian Robinson train is only gaining steam.
Gabriel Davis & Buffalo Bills ML (+175)
Going back to the well on this one. You can get this line on FanDuel Sportsbook. The Browns rank 25th in DVOA against WR2s and 30th in DVOA against deep passes. This sets up for Gabe Davis to have another one of his explosive days that come every few weeks. The game total is 49.5 and the Bills are favored by -7.5 on a neutral field (in Detroit due to snowstorm in Buffalo). If you’re feeling frisky Gabe Davis to score a pair of TDs is +800.
The Dark Horses
Nico Collins, HOU (+330)
Collins only has 1TD on the season but missed two games due to injury and returned last week to 10 targets. The Commanders are a great opportunity for Collins to have an explosive day. They rank 26th overall in DVOA for deep passes and 32nd in DVOA against WR2s. They allow 1.8 passing TDs per game (28th) and are extremely weak in deep passes against the left side of the field (Collins side). This entire game sets up for him to go off. Collins to score 2TD is +3000.
Tommy Tremble, CAR (+600)
Hey old friend! We bet Tremble to score a TD in Week 1 at +750 and he literally fell down at the 1-yard line. Well Baker Mayfield is back under center this Sunday in what should be a blow out. This would likely be a garbage time TD, but Baker strongly favors his TEs, and the Ravens actually rank 26th overall in DVOA vs TEs. It’s a longshot for a reason, but I’ll take the chance he gets one when the game doesn’t matter.
James Mitchell, DET (+950)
Mitchell is the backup tight end for the Detroit Lions. It’s worth mentioning that because 95% of the people reading this article have no clue who he is. Mitchell scored a TD 2 weeks ago right after Hockenson got traded. He’s playing roughly ~22% of the snaps and gets a Giants defense that is ranked 30th in DVOA vs TEs. The Giants give up the 5th-fewest rushing TDs per game so one of Goff’s red zone trips should feature a Mitchell target. Can he make it two TDs in 3 weeks?
Degenerate Parlay (+9487 odds)
Gabriel Davis + Bills ML
A $10 wager wins $948!