NL Wild Card Series Game 1: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals odds, picks and predictions

SPORTSBOOKWIRE

The Philadelphia Phillies and St. Louis Cardinals play Game 1 of an NL Wild Card Series Friday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is slated for 2:07 p.m. ET.

Season series: Phillies won 4-3

Philadelphia got a little leaky down the stretch after playing .642 baseball in June July and August (52-29). The Phillies struggled the week heading into Labor Day and they went just 7-13 over their last 20 games of the season. The Phils finished 7th in runs per game (4.61) and 15th in runs allowed per game (4.23).

The Cardinals rode a solid-but-slightly-underperforming start to the season and a monster August to an eventual 93-win campaign. The Redbirds went 22-7 in August and were 17-14 between Sept. 1 and the end of the season.

St. Louis has the better pitching and defense: its 3.93 runs allowed per game ranked 9th in the regular season but its sneaky-good offense (4.77 RPG 5th MLB) has struggled of late. The Cardinals own a .642 OPS over their last 16 games.

Phillies at Cardinals projected starters

RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Jose Quintana

Wheeler (12-7 2.82 ERA) posted a 1.04 WHIP 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP across 26 regular-season starts.

Did not allow an earned run in 14 IP over 2 starts against St. Louis
Spent some time in August and September on the IL with a forearm injury and has made just 3 starts since Aug. 20
Clocked a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road

Quintana (6-7 2.93 ERA) notched a 1.21 WHIP 2.6 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 165 2/3 IP and 32 starts.

Acquired at the trade deadline and has made 12 starts for the Cardinals
Logged a 2.01 ERA 1.12 WHIP and 48:16 K:BB across 62 2/3 IP over those 12 turns
Has not yielded a home run over 11 starts since Aug. 4

Phillies at Cardinals odds

Moneyline: Phillies -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Cardinals -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+150) | Cardinals +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Phillies at Cardinals picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4 Cardinals 3

Moneyline

Jose Quintana has certainly been on a roll but there is some leverage to be found by digging deeper into his numbers. Quintana has faced a weak strength-of-schedule over the last couple of months and his greatness in avoiding home runs is also likely some luckiness in avoiding home runs.

He’s allowed round-trippers on just 5.3% of fly balls across the entire season. For comparison his mound foe Friday has perhaps also been a tad fortunate and he exhibits a 9.8% rate.

Now bring the Phillies’ platoon numbers into this matchup. Philadelphia owns a .769 OPS against lefties and a .727 OPS against righties. Current Phillies batters have banged out a solid .758 OPS against Quintana in his career.

Looking at 1-run games and the strength of division opponents the visitors come up with even more value here.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA (-112).

Run line/Against the spread

With the low total and the Cards getting last licks STEER CLEAR of the more-juice-infused RL action.

Over/Under

There are no strong enough indicators or separators between real and expected production/prevention numbers to initiate action against a 25-cent proposition PASS.