New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

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The New York Yankees (71-42) and Boston Red Sox (56-58) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Saturday at Fenway Park. First pitch is set for 7:15 p.m. ET.

Season series: New York leads 6-5

The usually heavily-favored Yankees have lost bettors a lot of money in the last month, beginning with back-to-back losses to the Red Sox July 9-10. New York has gone just 10-19 in its last 29 games after losing the series opener 3-2 in 10 innings Friday.

The Red Sox have scuffled their way to a similar 9-19 mark since taking those July games from New York. The Boston offense has logged a mere .664 OPS over that span.

Yankees at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Frankie Montas vs. RHP Kutter Crawford

Montas (4-9, 3.59 ERA) owns a 1.18 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 through 107 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Shelled for 6 ER across just 3 IP in his Yankees debut at the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday.
  • Current Red Sox batters own a small-sample .869 OPS against him.

Crawford (3-4, 4.30 ERA) has appeared in 17 games (8 as a starter). He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 58 2/3 IP.

  • Had posted a 2.38 ERA in 5 starts and 1 relief appearance between July 4-Aug. 2 but allowed 5 runs in 5 IP in his last start at the Kansas City Royals Sunday.
  • Allowed 1 ER through 5 IP vs. the Yankees July 9.

Yankees at Red Sox odds and lines

  • Money line: Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Red Sox +122 (bet $100 to win $122)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Red Sox +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

Prediction

Yankees 5, Red Sox 4

Money line

New York’s recent performances have swung the club being overpriced most nights into value territory. The Yankees have outscored foes 154-134 in the last 29 games despite their losing record.

Montas’ first Yankees outing came on long rest after a trade from the Oakland Athletics and a few days on the bereavement list. Look for a bounce-back performance on normal rest against a struggling Boston club that’s not on its best side against righties.

BACK NEW YORK (-150).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Consider a play on the favored Yanks if the tag hits +120 or better.

Over/Under

The starters and a cool, low-humidity evening in Boston say Under. Bullpen fatigue (and role question marks on the New York side) work against that.

PASS on a well-made number.

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