The Philadelphia Phillies (37-35) face the San Diego Padres (45-28) Saturday night for the 3rd game of their 4-game series in San Diego. First pitch is 10:10 p.m. ET at Petco Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Phillies at Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Padres lead the season series 3-2.
The Phillies won the opener 6-2 before dropping Game 2 of the series 1-0. They have lost 4 of their last 5 games overall but are 16-6 in their last 22 games.
The Padres, with their 1-0 win, have won 4 of their last 5 games. They are 15-7 in their last 22 games.
Phillies at Padres projected starters
RHP Zach Eflin vs. LHP Blake Snell
Eflin (2-5, 4.43 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 63 IP.
- He has allowed 8 runs in his last 8 innings over 2 outings, and the Phillies lost both those starts.
- He faced the Padres once earlier this season and pitched well in a loss. The Phillies were shut out 3-0 in that game, but he allowed only 1 run on 5 hits in 6 innings.
Snell (0-4, 5.46 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 29 2/3 IP.
- The Padres have lost all of his starts.
- His first start of the season was a 3-0 loss to the Phillies in May. He allowed all 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks in only 3 2/3 innings.
Phillies at Padres odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Padres -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
Phillies at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Padres 4
Money line
The Phillies’ bats have gone quiet in the last 5 games. They have scored only 5 total runs in their 4 losses. They scored 6 in their 1 win. But they should get some runs on the board against Snell, who has struggled thus far this season.
Eflin did well in his 1 outing against the Padres.
The Phillies are 18-18 on the road, while the Padres are 21-14 at home, where they have won 8 of their last 10 games.
I’m going with the underdog tonight PHILLIES (+110).
Run line/Against the spread
Expecting a Phillies outright win, you want to PASS on the run line. At -205, you have to wager more than twice what you can win, while you can win more than you wager with a money line bet on Philly.
The Phillies are 19-17 ATS on the road and San Diego is 13-22 ATS at home.
Over/Under
Four of the 5 games between the 2 teams have had fewer than 8 runs.
However, each of Eflin’s last 5 starts had totals of at least 8 runs.
Eight of the Padres’ last 11 games had at least 8 runs.
Take OVER 7.5 (-112).
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