The Dallas Mavericks (0-1) host the Utah Jazz (1-0) for Game 2 in their Western Conference first-round playoff series. Monday’s tip-off at the American Airlines Center is set for 8:30 p.m. ET (NBATV). Below, we look at the Jazz vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Utah beat a Luka Doncic-less Dallas 99-93 in Game 1 Saturday, barely covering as 5.5-point road favorites and the Under easily cashed on a 208.5-point total. These teams split the four quarters and the “four factors”.
Jazz All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell rallied from a slow start in Game 1 to score 30 of his game-high 32 points after halftime, sinking 10 of his 11 second-half free-throw attempts.
Jazz at Mavericks odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Jazz -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Mavericks +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
- Against the spread: Jazz -5.5 (-107) | Mavericks +5.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 205.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Jazz at Mavericks key injuries
Jazz
- None
Mavericks
- PG Luka Doncic (calf) doubtful
Jazz at Mavericks picks and predictions
Prediction
Jazz 106, Mavericks 103
Money line
Slight LEAN to the MAVERICKS (+175), if at all, because I like them to cover the spread and Dallas could have won Game 1 by making a few more free throws or finishing off a couple of defensive possessions with rebounding.
Furthermore, the Jazz (-220) have suspect ball security and a bad defensive free-throw attempt rate. The Mavs had half the turnovers of the Jazz in Game 1 and their dribble penetration should result in a bunch of visits to the foul line.
However, it’s tough to get behind Dallas here since Luka probably won’t play in Game 2 and Utah has the second-, third- and fourth-best players in this series otherwise.
The prediction is an honest projection of the score.
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Against the spread
BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-115) because their ATS loss Saturday was a bad beat and the Jazz -5.5 (-107) looked disjointed on offense.
SF Bojan Bogdanović carried Utah early, scoring 20 of its 45 first-half points, and Mitchell took over in the second half. Otherwise, the Jazz struggled to get clean looks and didn’t utilize their size advantage since C Rudy Gobert attempted just 1 field goal and got all 5 of his points at the foul line.
However, Gobert’s defense kept Utah in this game and the Mavs ball-handlers were getting into the paint at will, but couldn’t finish because of his presence. If the Mavs get the same dribble penetration in Game 2 then Dallas could get Gobert into foul trouble and/or collapse Utah’s perimeter defense.
BET the MAVERICKS +5.5 (-115).
Over/Under
PASS because I don’t have a strong enough grasp of the total here. Part of me thinks Game 2 ping pongs Over the total since Game 1 went Under by 16.5 points.
But, Jazz-Mavericks are 2-6 O/U in their last 8 meetings, Utah is 1-11 O/U in the last 12 games as road favorites and Dallas is missing the center of its offensive gameplan.
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