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By Ryan Minion
College hoops fans are in for a treat Saturday night when the red hot fifth-seeded Houston Cougars square off with Jay Wright’s Villanova Wildcats for a chance to win the South Region and advance to the Final Four for the second consecutive season.
When the 2-seed Wildcats have the basketball, its offensive efficiency will be more important than ever when matched up with a Cougar defense that is most definitely the toughest they have seen all season long. For Villanova to find success offensively, it must rely on its half-court, high-frequency pick and roll sets in an attempt to find efficient shot-making opportunities from beyond the arc. The Wildcats’ three-point shooting ability has been a staple of Jay Wright’s offense for more than a decade and will be vital to Villanova’s success on Saturday night. Look for Villanova to use spacing and off-ball screens. That should enable shooters like Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore to find good looks from deep.
Despite Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars ranking in the top 10 in a number of defensive efficiency metrics, it ranks outside the top 300 in the country in 3FG allowed, which could be problematic against an offense that heavily relies on such shots.
When Houston has the ball, the Cougars produce strong efficiency in transition. However, the most significant metric relative to their success offensively is second-chance scoring opportunities. Houston is the best offensive rebounding team in America. The Cougars grab an offensive rebound in nearly 37% of its possessions.
Although Houston allows a ton of 3-point attempts, it defends the perimeter very well, forcing a substantial amount of low-quality 3’s. That said, it is difficult to determine how the Wildcats will fare on Saturday night from beyond the arc; therefore I do not believe the market presents enough value to back either side in what should be an extremely close matchup.
Houston Offense Vs. Villanova Defense
| Houston Offense | Stats (Rank) | Villanova Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 75.7 (51) | Points/Gm | 62.7 (25) |
| 64.8 (320) | Possessions/Game | 63.9 (17) |
| 46.9 (36) | Field Goal % | 40.7 (40) |
| 34.5 (131) | 3PT % | 30.7 (42) |
| 53.6 (43) | Effective FG % | 47.2 (64) |
| 56.1 (70) | True Shooting % | 50.6 (76) |
Villanova Offense Vs. Houston Defense
| Villanova Offense | Stats (Rank) | Houston Defense |
|---|---|---|
| 72.5 (134) | Points/Gm | 59 (3) |
| 62.9 (348) | Possessions/Game | 65.1 (33) |
| 43.7 (198) | Field Goal % | 37.3 (1) |
| 35.9 (57) | 3PT % | 28.7 (10) |
| 52 (100) | Effective FG % | 43.4 (4) |
| 56.9 (48) | True Shooting % | 48.2 (13) |
Houston Betting Insights
- Houston has covered 25 times in 38 games with a spread this season.
- The Cougars have been favored by 2.5 points or more 35 times this season, and covered the spread in 23 of those matchups.
- Houston’s games have hit the over 16 out of 38 times this season.
- In 22 games this season, Houston and its opponents have gone over 128 total points.
- The average total in Cougars matchups this year is 133.8, 5.8 more points than this game’s over/under.
Villanova Betting Insights
- Villanova has won 21 games against the spread this year, while failing to cover or pushing 17 times.
- The Wildcats have not covered the spread this season (0-3 ATS) when playing as at least 2.5-point underdogs.
- So far this season, 16 out of Villanova’s 38 games with an over/under have hit the over.
- Villanova has played 23 games this season that ended with a combined score above 128 points.
- The average over/under for Wildcats matchups this season is 136, eight more points than this game’s total.
Houston Key Players
- The Cougars scoring leader is Kyler Edwards, who averages 14.1 points per game.
- Jamal Shead leads Houston with 5.9 assists per game and Josh Carlton paces the squad with 6.3 rebounds per matchup.
- Edwards connects on 2.7 treys per game to lead the Cougars.
- Houston’s steals leader is Shead, who averages 1.7 per game. Fabian White Jr. leads the team averaging 1.4 blocks a contest.
Villanova Key Players
- Collin Gillespie’s excellent showing this season give him the top spot on the Wildcats scoring and assists leaderboards with 15.9 points per game and 3.3 assists per game.
- Jermaine Samuels’ 6.4 rebounds per game paces Villanova’s rebounding effort. He also adds 11 points per game.
- Gillespie makes more threes per game than any other member of the Wildcats, averaging three treys per game.
- Nobody on Villanova grabs more steals than Brandon Slater (1.1 per game) or blocks more shots than Samuels (0.7 per game).