The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies continue World Series play with Game 5 Thursday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX).
Series: Tied 2-2; Houston won the regular-season series 2-1
The Astros managed just 5 singles in losing Game 3. The Phillies wish they had gotten anywhere near that much offense in Game 4. Led by RHP Cristian Javier Houston hurlers combined for a no-hitter in a 5-0 win that evened the series. Astros pitchers issued 3 walks and had 14 punch-outs in the game that earned them a return trip to Houston after Thursday’s Game 5.
Philadelphia went from 5 HR in Game 3 to no hits in Game 4. Including that Game 3 homer-fest the Phillies had banged out 21 extra-base hits over their previous 5 games. Now they turn to a Game 5 starter who has not pitched in 18 days and that starter — RHP Noah Syndergaard — is backed by a bullpen that has been in frequent use the last 2 nights.
Astros at Phillies Game 5 projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
Verlander went 18-4 in the regular season and led the majors in ERA (1.75) and WHIP (0.83). Across 175 IP in 28 starts he finished with 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9.
- 2022 postseason: 1-0 7.20 ERA (15 IP 12 ER) 19 H 2 HR 4 BB 19 K; owns a 3.39 ERA in 34 career postseason games
- Current Phillies bats own an aggregate .594 OPS against him (includes postseason)
Syndergaard pitched in 25 games (24 starts) in the regular season. He was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA 1.25 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 134 2/3 IP.
- Has made 1 start and 2 relief appearances in this postseason (5 1/3 IP 1 ER); owns a 2.30 ERA in 8 career postseason games
- Posted a 3.47 ERA at home in the regular season
- Has a limited history against Houston batters but has held them to an aggregate .561 OPS (includes postseason)
Astros at Phillies Game 5 odds
- Moneyline: Astros -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Phillies +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+105) | Phillies +1.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -103 | U: -117)
Astros at Phillies Game 5 picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4 Phillies 3
Moneyline
The momentum meter has swung back toward Houston. Peg Syndergaard-Verlander as being less a handicap than it looks on paper. But the Philadelphia right-hander has pitched all of 1 1/3 innings since Oct. 15.
The lean is on the home side keeping this close and a Philadelphia RL play is suggested.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
PHILLIES +1.5 (-135) figures as the best value play on what is through 5 games the most unattractive betting game of this series.
This play fades Verlander and the Houston bullpen — not because they aren’t good but because they are just being marginally overrated.
Over/Under
Based on what these clubs did in the regular season with their pitching having a bit more value than what shows in surface numbers and the opposite case for the offenses this series has a built-in Under lean.
This starters’ matchup — especially in expected-vs.-actual results — works against that Under lean.
PASS.