The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies continue World Series play with Game 4 Wednesday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is at 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX).
Series: Philadelphia leads 2-1; Houston won the regular-season series 2-1
Houston fell flat Tuesday in Game 3 by losing 7-0 in what marked just the club’s 4th road game since Sept. 27. The Astros managed just 5 hits — all singles — in the defeat. Houston has yielded 5 or more runs in 3 of their last 4 games. The AL champs own a .538 OPS on the road this postseason.
The Phillies had as many home runs as the Astros had hits in Game 3. DH Bryce Harper launched Philadelphia’s 1st round-tripper of the night. He’s banged out 6 HR while batting .382 this postseason. The Phils own a .977 OPS over 6 home playoff games.
Astros at Phillies Game 4 projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Aaron Nola
Javier went 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA 0.95 WHIP 3.1 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 through 148 2/3 IP over 30 regular-season games (25 starts).
- Has allowed 1 run in 6 2/3 IP in these playoffs (1 start 1 relief appearance); owns a 2.70 ERA across 13 career postseason games
- Benefited from a .229 batting average on balls in play in the regular season
Nola logged 205 IP across 32 starts in the regular season. He went 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA 0.96 WHIP 1.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9.
- Has coughed up 11 ER over 9 IP in his last 2 postseason starts
- Owns a 3.46 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over his last 3 seasons at Citizens Bank Park
- Has held current Houston batters to an aggregate .551 OPS in past meetings (including postseason)
Astros at Phillies Game 4 odds
- Moneyline: Astros -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Astros at Phillies Game 4 picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4 Astros 2
Moneyline
Aaron Nola clocked a 2.36 ERA over his last 6 regular-season starts and that stretch included 6 2/3 scoreless frames against these Astros and 2 starts against the powerful Atlanta Braves. Nola was drilled for 5 runs on the road in the opener of this series and that came on the heels of a shaky NLCS road outing against the San Diego Padres.
Look for a bounce-back effort Wednesday after a more normal rest interval; Nola was off 8 days before his World Series Game 1 turn. Peg Javier who at times looked dominant against the New York Yankees in his last start (ALCS Game 3) as being a rust candidate in this game and as a slightly overrated hurler dealing with a significant innings increase from last year.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA (-105).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
A lot of juice is obscuring the profit point on the Phillies +1.5 (-190). The home nine would be a decent play at -170 or even -175.
Over/Under
Based on what these clubs did in the regular season with their pitching having a bit more value than what shows in surface numbers and the opposite case for the offenses this series has a built-in Under lean.
This starters’ matchup — fading Javier and playing Nola — is somewhat neutral. But the pricing is attractive here and a rested back end of both bullpens adds to the value.
BACK THE UNDER 7.5 (-120).