The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros meet for Game 6 of the 2022 World Series Saturday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX).
Series: Houston leads 3-2; the Astros won the regular-season series 2-1
NL Wild Card Philadelphia lost some momentum with its 3-2 loss in a cliffhanger of a Game 5 Thursday and with being no-hit by 4 Houston hurlers Wednesday. However the Phillies have surprised onlookers with more than a couple of resilient bounce-backs in these playoffs. Can they regain momentum once again in a situation where nothing else will do?
The AL champion Astros won 106 games in the regular season so it figures they know a thing or 2 about holding onto momentum in a series in a week etc. In this series hope for hanging on hinges on Houston’s pitching which has thus far held the Phillies to a .613 OPS.
Phillies at Astros projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Wheeler posted a 2.82 ERA 1.04 WHIP 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP in the regular season. He went 12-7 over 26 starts.
- Has clocked a 2.67 ERA with 28 K and 6 BB over 30 1/3 IP in this first 1st postseason; he has allowed just 16 hits (2 HR)
- Notched a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road during the regular season
- Last pitched Game 2 of the World Series last Saturday (at Minute Maid): allowed 5 R (4 ER) on 9 base runners in 5 IP
Valdez made 31 starts in the regular season. He went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA 1.16 WHIP 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 201 1/3 IP.
- Held the Phillies to 1 R over 6 1/3 opposite Wheeler in Game 2; owns a 1.42 ERA in 19 IP this postseason
- Over the last 3 years in the regular season has notched a 2.70 ERA on the road and a 3.51 ERA at home
Phillies at Astros odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +133 (bet $100 to win $133) | Astros -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +102)
Phillies at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4 Astros 2
Moneyline
This is a rematch of the Game 2 pitching matchup. Valdez won that meeting; the host Astros won that game 5-2. Wheeler took a 1.78 postseason ERA into that start and he coughed up some hard contact in allowing 5 runs in as many innings.
But Wheeler — who logged an 0.60 ERA over his last 3 regular-season starts — was a solid play that night at +125. He’s a solid play in this one.
During the regular season Philadelphia filed a .727 OPS against right-handers and a .769 figure against port-siders.
The price on the visiting 9 is worth a quick trigger. I’d expect the price to drift toward Philadelphia BACK THE PHILLIES (+133).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
More juice is brought into this equation and the price on Philly is a bit high.
Over/Under
There is a slight fade to the combined batting numbers owned by both sides and this World Series has had a global Under lean going into each game.
However PASS on this one until a +107 or better is available on the Under 6.5.