The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies return to World Series play Tuesday after a scheduled Sunday off day and rainout Monday. First pitch in Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX).
Series: Tied 1-1; Houston won the regular-season series 2-1
Houston countered Philadelphia’s Game 1 victory with a 5-2 win in Saturday’s Game 2. LHP Framber Valdez logged by far the best start for either side so far when he went 6 1/3 IP allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts. The Astros are 8-1 this postseason.
The Phillies had a 4-game win streak snapped and failed to hit a home run for the 1st time in 9 games in their Game 2 loss. For the postseason Philadelphia has 17 HR in 12 games. The Phils own a playoff OPS of .745 (.975 at home).
The Monday postponement initiated a change in Philadelphia’s strategy. The Phils were going to start RHP Noah Syndergaard; they will now go with LHP Ranger Suarez.
Astros at Phillies Game 3 projected starters
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
McCullers missed most of the regular season due to a forearm injury. In 8 starts he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA 1.24 WHIP 4.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 47 2/3 IP.
- Has allowed 3 ER on 10 hits in 11 IP (3 BB 13K) this postseason; has a 2.77 ERA in 18 postseason games
- Last pitched on Oct. 23: in regular-season play his 6-plus days rest split is his best (3.04 ERA .649 OPS)
- Has a limited history against Philadelphia batters but has held them to an aggregate .576 OPS (including postseason)
Suarez made 29 starts in the regular season going 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA 1.33 WHIP 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 across 155 1/3 IP.
- Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
- Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
- Has appeared in 4 games this postseason (2 as a starter): has pitched 9 2/3 innings allowing 3 R (2 ER) on 6 H and 5 BB with 9 K
Astros at Phillies Game 3 odds
- Moneyline: Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+133) | Phillies +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Astros at Phillies Game 3 picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4 Astros 3
Moneyline
In Game 3 we get away from some of the larger data samples to work with when it comes to starting pitching. And while that creates some gray area on both sides the lean here is on Suarez (and a rested Phillies bullpen) at home.
In 5 home playoff games the Phillies have cranked out a .975 OPS. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home in the postseason and it went a robust 23-13 at home in the 2nd half of the regular season.
The Astros are 3-0 on the road this postseason but with a .576 OPS at the plate. Houston is an accomplished road team overall (51-30 during the regular season) but much of that was earned in the subpar AL West.
BET PHILADELPHIA (+115) but consider making it partial-unit play on any price south of +115.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS but consider a line-watch. Adding Philly +1.5 at -155 or better would make for some decent insurance on the above play.
Over/Under
Based on what these clubs did in the regular season (pitching having a tad more value than what shows in surface numbers and the opposite case for the offenses) this series has a built-in Under lean.
This starters’ matchup however puts some lean the other way. Suarez coming from the left side is a boon for a Houston offense that posted a .783 OPS against southpaws during the regular season.
A PASS is recommended.