The Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies return to World Series play Monday. First pitch in Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX).
Series: Tied 1-1; Houston won regular-season series 2-1
Houston countered Philadelphia’s Game 1 victory with a 5-2 win in Saturday’s Game 2. LHP Framber Valdez logged by far the best start for either side so far when he went 6 1/3 IP allowing 1 run on 4 hits with 3 walks and 9 strikeouts. The Astros are 8-1 this postseason.
The Phillies had a 4-game win streak snapped and failed to hit a home run for the 1st time in 9 games. For the postseason Philadelphia has 17 HR in 12 games. The Phils own a playoff OPS of .745 (.975 at home).
Astros at Phillies Game 3 projected starters
RHP Lance McCullers Jr. vs. RHP Noah Syndergaard
McCullers missed most of the regular season due to a forearm injury. In 8 starts he was 4-2 with a 2.27 ERA 1.24 WHIP 4.2 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 47 2/3 IP.
- Has allowed 3 ER on 10 hits in 11 IP (3 BB 13K) this postseason; has a 2.77 ERA in 18 postseason games
- Last pitched on Oct. 23: in regular-season play his 6-plus days rest split is his best (3.04 ERA .649 OPS)
- Has a limited history against Philadelphia batters but has held them to an aggregate .576 OPS (includes postseason)
Syndergaard pitched in 25 games (24 starts) in the regular season. He was 10-10 with a 3.94 ERA 1.25 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 in 134 2/3 IP.
- Has made 1 start and 2 relief appearances in this postseason (5 1/3 IP 1 ER); owns a 2.30 ERA in 8 career postseason games
- Posted a 3.47 ERA at home in the regular season
- Has a limited history against Houston batters but has held them to an aggregate .561 OPS (includes postseason)
Astros at Phillies Game 3 odds
- Moneyline: Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Phillies +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+120) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Astros at Phillies Game 3 picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4 Phillies 3
Moneyline
In Game 3 we get away from some of the larger data samples to work with when it comes to starting pitching. And while that creates some gray area on both sides the lean here is on Syndergaard (and a rested Phillies bullpen) at home.
Look to the run line for the best return-vs.-risk in this particular match-up PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
In 5 home playoff games the Phillies have cranked out a .975 OPS. Philadelphia is 5-0 at home in the postseason and it went a robust 23-13 at home in the 2nd half of the regular season.
The Astros are 3-0 on the road this postseason but with a .576 OPS at the plate. Houston is an accomplished road team overall (51-30 during the regular season) but much of that was earned in the subpar AL West.
TAKE PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (-150).
Over/Under
Based on what these clubs did in the regular season (pitching having a tad more value than what shows in surface numbers and the opposite case for the offenses) this series has a built in Under lean. This starters’ matchup however puts some lean the other way.
The Sunday night Under price is decent for those who want to stick with it (maybe as a partial-unit play?) but a PASS is recommended.