The Philadelphia Phillies (1-0) and Houston Astros (0-1) meet for the 2nd game of the 2022 World Series. Saturday’s contest at Minute Maid Park is slated for an 8:03 p.m. ET first pitch (FOX).
Series: Philadelphia leads 1-0
Regular-season series: Houston won 2-1
NL Wild Card Philadelphia toted a postseason plus-22 run differential into Friday’s series opener. The Phillies did not widen that gap much in Game 1 but they now hold a 1-0 lead in the Fall Classic. The Phils battled all the way back from a 5-0 deficit and then capped off their lid-lifter heroics with a J.T. Realmuto 10th-inning home run en route to a 6-5 triumph Friday.
Friday’s loss marked the 1st taste of playoff defeat for the AL West-champion Astros who had been 7-0 in these playoffs. After starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Justin Verlander exited Friday’s game both bullpens dueled in effective fashion all the way to the 10th when RHP Luis Garcia was touched up with Realmuto’s opposite-field smash to right.
Phillies at Astros projected starters
RHP Zack Wheeler vs. LHP Framber Valdez
Wheeler posted a 2.82 ERA 1.04 WHIP 2.0 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 153 IP regular-season innings. He went 12-7 over 26 starts.
- Spent some time in August and September on the IL with a forearm injury but has bounced back nicely: owns a 1.34 ERA across 3 regular-season and 4 postseason starts since Sept. 21.
- Clocked a 3.84 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road during the regular season
- Allowed 2 runs on 4 hits over 13 IP in the NLCS; walked 1 and struck out 16
- Last pitched Oct. 23: had a 2.57 ERA in 11 regular-season starts on 5-day rest
Valdez made 31 starts in the regular season. He went 17-6 with a 2.82 ERA 1.16 WHIP 3.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 201 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed 4 R (2 ER) in 12 2/3 IP during the 2022 postseason; owns a 3.83 ERA in 11 career playoff games (2020-22)
- Last pitched Oct. 20: owns a 3.59 career ERA when pitching on more than 6 days’ rest (regular season)
- Over the last 3 years in the regular season: has notched a 2.70 ERA on the road and a 3.51 ERA at home
Phillies at Astros odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-175) | Astros -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
Phillies at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 4 Astros 2
Moneyline
Both starters had almost identical regular-season numbers. Wheeler has been sharper in the postseason. He may have been well-served by his August-September injury at least in terms of fighting innings-build-up fatigue.
During the regular season Philadelphia filed a .727 OPS against right-handers and a .769 figure against port-siders.
The price on the visiting 9 is solid here BACK THE PHILLIES (+130).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
Over/Under
The Under went 2-1 – with an Over that involved 1 team not scoring – when these clubs met Oct. 3-5. The pitching for both sides — save perhaps for the starting efforts Friday — has been impeccable.
There is a slight fade to the combined batting numbers owned by both sides and this World Series figures to have an institutional Under lean going into each game.
The Under whiffed in Game 1 but it remains a strong play Saturday.
BET THE UNDER 6.5 (+110).