The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros clash in a Game 1 showdown as the 2022 World Series gets underway Friday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET.
Regular-season series: Houston won 2-1
NL Wild Card Philadelphia went 87-75 in the regular season and is a robust 9-2 with a plus-22 run differential in the postseason. The Phillies closed out their regular season by losing 2 of 3 to these Astros Oct. 3-5. Those 3 games were in Houston: The Phils finished the season 1 game under-.500 (40-41) on the road.
The AL West champion Astros are an undefeated 7-0 these playoffs. They went 106-56 in the regular season to earn the AL’s top seed. Houston’s last loss was Oct. 3 at Minute Maid Park to Philadelphia and RHP Aaron Nola who is slated to start Friday’s World Series opener. The Astros would win the next 2 games of that series – Since Oct. 4 they are 6-0 at home with a .964 OPS.
Phillies at Astros projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Nola went 11-13 with a 3.25 ERA 0.96 WHIP 1.3 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 across 205 IP in 32 starts in the regular season.
- Roughed up in last start: 6 ER in 4 2/3 IP in 8-5 NLCS Game 2 loss at San Diego Padres Oct. 19
- Owns 3.12 ERA (17 1/3 IP 6 ER) across 3 starts this postseason the 1st in his career
- Clocked 2.60 ERA (27 2/3 IP 8 ER) 0.90 WHIP over last 5 starts of regular season
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 2-0 0.00 ERA (12 2/3 IP) in 2 starts but current Houston batters own aggregate .330 OPS against him
Verlander went 18-4 in the regular season and led the majors in ERA (1.75) and WHIP (0.83). Across 175 IP in 28 starts he finished with 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9.
- Fanned 11.1 batters per 9 en route to going 10-1 with a 1.64 ERA (88 IP 16 ER) in 15 regular-season home starts
- 2022 postseason: 1-0 6.30 ERA (10 IP 7 ER) 13 H 2 HR 2 BB 14 K
- Career postseason: 15-11 3.55 ERA (197 2/3 IP 78 ER) 1.09 WHIP 2.8 BB/9 10.0 K/9 in 32 starts and 1 relief appearance
- Career World Series: 0-6 5.68 ERA (38 IP 24 ER) 1.29 WHIP 3.3 BB/9 9.2 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 3-0 1.42 ERA (19 IP 3 ER) in 3 starts holding them to an aggregate .450 OPS
Phillies at Astros odds
- Moneyline: Phillies +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Astros -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Phillies at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3 Phillies 2
Moneyline
Both starters have had a clunker in this postseason. Verlander’s regular-season surface line benefits from a .240 batting average on balls in play. He’s also very tough on lefty bats and that looms large against Philly sluggers LF Kyle Schwarber and DH Bryce Harper (which plays into an Under lean in Game 1).
Nola logged a 3.00 ERA (108 IP 36 ER) across 16 regular-season road starts. His combined September/October (2-2 2.36 ERA 34 1/3 IP 9 ER) has been impressive and he gives Philly a decent chance Friday.
While I’m picking the Astros (-165) to win there’s value in the Phillies. Watch for line movement and make a partial-unit bet if the Philly price hits +150.
Run line/Against the spread
Similar to above but perhaps the preferred play for those who favor a low-scoring opener.
Take Philadelphia +1.5 if the juice drops to -160.
Over/Under
The Under went 2-1 – with an Over that involved 1 team not scoring – when these two clubs met Oct. 3-5. The Phillies have since compiled an ERA of 3.06 since. The Astros have filed a 1.88 figure in their playoff games.
These two clubs can pitch. There is a combined slight fade to their batting numbers – and that’s looking at everything from Opening Day to now. Mix in rested bullpens and off days to reset relievers during the series and this World Series figures to have an institutional Under lean going into each game.
So the starters for Game 1 figure as a mixed bag – backing Nola and fading just a bit Verlander.
It all boils down to a strong play on this price. Consider grabbing it early.
BET UNDER 6.5 (+100).