The Kansas City Royals (29-49) take the field against the Houston Astros (52-27) Tuesday at Minute Maid Park in the 2nd of a 4-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET.
Season series: Houston leads 3-1.
KC stormed out to a 5-0 lead Monday, but couldn’t hold on as their bullpen allowed 4 runs in the 8th and 9th with OF Yordan Alvarez walking it off with a home run. KC has the third-worst pen ERA at 4.72 while Houston has the best at 2.62. KC has won just 3 of its last 9 and is 15-24 on the road. They are about the same team offensively while on the road with a .237 BA as opposed to .243 at home.
The Astros are the only team that can challenge the Yankees for home-field advantage right now with 6 fewer wins and the 2nd-best record in baseball. They’ve won 7 in a row and 9 of 10. Houston is 16-4 in its last 20 games. The team is 25-11 at home and hits for a .247 BA as opposed to .235 away from Minute Maid.
Royals at Astros projected starters
RHP Zack Greinke vs. RHP Luis Garcia
Greinke (2-4, 4.38 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 4.5 K/9 in 63 2/3 IP.
- Allowed 1 ER over 6 IP in his last 2 starts.
- Hasn’t faced the Astros since 2018.
- Current Astros are hitting .271 with a .301 weighted on-base average in 63 plate appearances.
Garcia (6-5, 3.54 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 76 1/3 IP.
- Allowed 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 2 K in 7 IP in a June 4 loss to KC.
- Last start: Won 2-1 Thursday vs. Yankees with 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 6 K.
- Current Royals hitting .216 with a .237 weighted on-base average in 54 plate appearances against him.
Royals at Astros odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Royals +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Astros -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-103) | Astros -1.5 (-117)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Royals at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 7, Royals 3
Money line
Houston takes this one, and there’s really no reason they shouldn’t sweep the series after KC missed its chance Monday. Greinke should keep the Royals in contention, but his 4.5 K/9 is half of what it was just 2 years ago. They’ll outlast him. We’re not paying the -260 ML, and I don’t love any of the first 5 props. I would consider Royals +1.5 (-145) in the first 5 innings PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
Houston’s other 2 wins vs. KC has been 10-3 and 7-4. They lost a 6-0 afternoon tilt June 3, but that’s skewed by a reliever melting down for 4 ER in 2/3 of an inning. C Salvador Perez had a homer and 3 RBI, and he’s out due to thumb surgery. I’d confide in the ASTROS -1.5 (-117) to cover and put them at 19-18 on the RL at home.
Over/Under
When you think of the Royals and their 27th-ranked runs/9, you think they’re an Under team. They’ve gone Over 6 of 10. Four of the last 5 between these teams went Over, and the only 1 that didn’t was when Houston failed to score. The Over is 4-0 in Greinke’s last 4 road starts. Monday was a wakeup call, Houston approaches this number by itself. Take the OVER 8.5 (-115).
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