The Minnesota Twins (45-37) meet the AL Central rival Chicago White Sox (38-39) Monday at Guaranteed Rate Field for the start of their 3-game series. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET .
Minnesota is 6-4 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, but lost its last outing to the Baltimore Orioles 3-1 Sunday.
Chicago is 5-5 SU in the last 10, but completed a 3-game weekend road sweep of the San Francisco Giants with a 13-4 blowout victory Sunday.
The Twins lead the season series 3-0 and have a plus-10 run differential in those meetings.
Twins at White Sox projected starters
RHP Dylan Bundy vs. RHP Johnny Cueto
Bundy is 4-4 with a 4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 65 IP over 13 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Minnesota’s 7-6 loss at the Cleveland Guardians Wednesday with 5 IP, 3 R (2 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 1 K.
- 2022 vs. the White Sox: One start, a 9-2 win April 23 with 5 scoreless IP, 4 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
Cueto is 2-4 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 54 IP over 8 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Won 11-4 Tuesday at the Los Angeles Angels with 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 3 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 home splits: 0-3 with a 5.48 ERA (23 IP, 14 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 4 HR and 7.0 K/9 in 3 starts and 1 bullpen outing.
Twins at White Sox odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Twins +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | White Sox -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-190) | White Sox -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)
Twins at White Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
White Sox 7, Twins 4
Money line
BET the WHITE SOX (-130) because they’ve been steamed up from -120 opening favorites and Bundy struggles both on the road and pitching on 5 days rest.
Bundy is 2-3 on the road with a 6.41 ERA (2.10 home ERA), 0.94 WHIP (1.53 home WHIP) and 7 HRs allowed (3 HRs allowed at home). Also, Bundy is 0-3 with a 5.25 ERA (12 IP, 7 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 9 K when pitching on 5 days rest.
Furthermore, the Twins are 2-6 SU on the road with Bundy on the bump with a minus-49.9% return on investment (ROI). The White Sox are 6-3 SU when returning home after a 5-game or longer road swing with a plus-18.6% ROI.
BET 1 unit on the WHITE SOX (-130).
Run line/Against the spread
SPRINKLE on the WHITE SOX -1.5 (+155), if at all, because this is a chunky payout, Chicago is 6-3 RL in home games following a 5-game or longer road stand with a plus-33.2% ROI and the Twins +1.5 (-190) are 3-5 RL in Bundy road starts with a minus-26.2% ROI.
However, the White Sox’s ML is my favorite look in this game because Chicago is just 7-18 RL as home underdogs.
Over/Under
PASS.
There’s more money in the betting market on the Under 9.5 (-115) but more bets are placed on the Over 9.5 (-107), according to Pregame.com, which leads me to believe the Under is the sharper play.
Also, Chicago’s lineup has struggled against right-handed pitching and Minnesota is 0-4 O/U in the last 4 games vs. righty starters.
But I just cannot get down on the Under because both starters are bottom-of-the-rotation guys and Twins-White Sox is 5-1-1 O/U in their last 7 meetings in Chicago.
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