In boxing’s top weekend event, Jermell Charlo and Brian Castano run back their classic bout that ended in a draw. Will either Charlo or Castano do enough for the win or will the rematch end in another draw? Also on Saturday night, Kubrat Pulev takes on tough Jerry Forrest and during the day, Tony Yoka battles Martin Bakole. Keep reading for Boxing Lines, analysis, and free picks for five of this Saturday’s top boxing matches.
Charlo Versus Castano – Top Saturday Fights | Boxing Lines & Picks
Top Boxing Events
- When: Saturday, May 14
Ryan Ford +200 vs Bilal Laggoune -275
- 8 Rounds Cruiserweights at 11:00 am ET
Ryan Ford has lost 3 of his last 4 bouts, which is one of the reasons he’s the underdog in Saturday’s bout versus Bilal Laggoune.
Ford hasn’t won a bout since 2019 when he knocked out Orlando Vasquez in the final round of a 6 round bout. Since then, he’s lost twice. But although he’s lost, at least they were by majority decision and unanimous decision.
Bilal Laggoune is on a 2-match losing streak. He fell to Tommy McCarthy via majority decision and then suffered a third round knockout loss to Jack Massey in his last. Laggoune should win this, but Ford has a better shot than the odds indicate. Backing the underdog makes sense.
Boxing Pick: Ryan Ford
Tony Yoka -500 vs Martin Bakole +330
- 10 Rounds Heavyweights – ESPN+ at 2:00 pm ET
Favorite Tony Yoka is 11-0 with 9 knockout wins. Yoka has the look of a man who believes a championship belt is in his future. However, although Yoka has fought great so far, there is a knock.
Yoka has never fought outside of France. Martin Bakole has a very good 17-1 record with 13 knockout wins. Bakole hasn’t lost since 2018 and when he did it was to the well-regarded Michael Hunter. Here’s another match where the odds don’t give enough credit to the underdog.
Boxing Pick: Martin Bakole
Kubrat Pulev -350 vs Jerry Forrest +250
- 10 Rounds Heavyweights – Thriller / FITE TV at 6:30 pm ET
In Pulev’s last boxing match, Kubrat is also a bareknuckle fighter, Anthony Joshua knocked him out in the ninth round of a scheduled 12.
Pulev fought well for most of the fight. Not only that, but he hung with Anthony Joshua, which explains why he’s offering underlay odds to beat Jerry Forrest. The underdog drew against 24-0-1 Zhilei Zhang two fights back. In his last fight, Forrest drew against 20-1-1 against Michael Hunter.
Forrest is a good boxer. He can win this. So, yep, we can back an underdog at overlay odds.
Boxing Pick: Jerry Forrest
William Zepeda -1400 vs Rene Alvarado +650
- 10 Rounds Lightweights – DAZN at 7:00 pm ET
Versus William Zepeda, Rene Alvarado is not an overlay. Alvarado heads into this on a 3-match losing streak. No doubt, all 3 losses were to excellent boxers.
Alvarado lost twice to Roger Guitierrez and once to Lamont Roach. But on Saturday, Alvarado faces 25-0-0 William Zepeda. Alvarado won’t have a chance to breath in this fight. Zepeda will be all over him from the opening bell. The chalk wins.
Boxing Pick: William Zepeda
12 Rounds Jr. Middleweight Championship – Jermell Charlo vs. Brian Castano
- When: 10:00 pm ET
- Moneyline Odds: Castano +170 / Charlo -200
- Over / Under Odds: O 10 ½ -270 / Under 10 ½ +220
Why Jermell Charlo is a good bet to beat Brian Castano
In the first match, Charlo dominated the championship rounds. Jermell won rounds 10 through round 12. Not only that, but he took everything Castano threw at him and didn’t quit. Expect Charlo to use his jab more which will frustrate the brawling Brian Castano.
Why Brian Castano is a good bet to beat Jermell Charlo
There were moments where it looked as if Castano might knock out Charlo. Castano hit Charlo with a lot of heavy punches. But even though the favorite kept coming, Castano didn’t give up. He kept with the script, landed great combinations, and fought to a draw. In this fight, Castano will change his strategy, likely box more, and try to win more angles instead of going head first into Charlo’s chest.
Final Betting Analysis: Jermell Charlo vs Brian Castano
This is an incredibly tough fight to handicap. Both these guys are capable of boxing and brawling. The key for Jermell will be to use his jab and keep Castano from winning angles where he can throw effective punches.
The key for Brian will be the opposite. Castano wants to put his opponent into a position, like against the ropes or with his foot inside of Castano’s, where he can land his most effective punches.
If Castano makes a few slight adjustments, he should win this bout. Brian got into trouble in the first fight when he threw caution to the wind and came forward without a plan. Charlo is too good of boxer not to counter off an opponent that moves forward without intent.
So if Castano moves forward with intent, if he’s looking to win angles, and if he move’s forward while throwing punches, forcing Charlo to react differently than Jermell did in the first fight, Castano can pull off the upset win. Give the dog a chance to bark.
Boxing Pick: Brian Castano via unanimous decision