As we dive into the heart of the conference season, a crucial Summit League matchup is on tap as the South Dakota Coyotes travel to face the Omaha Mavericks. While neither team is lighting the college basketball world on fire, these mid-season conference games are critical for positioning and building momentum. Omaha enters as a significant home favorite, but in a rivalry game between two familiar foes, a straightforward outcome is never guaranteed. We’ll break down the records, analyze the betting trends, and deliver a sharp prediction for this Northern Plains battle.
1. Game Overview:
- Matchup: South Dakota Coyotes (Away) vs. Omaha Mavericks (Home)
- Date: Wednesday, January 21, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM EST
- Location: Baxter Arena, Omaha, Nebraska
This is a classic mid-week conference tilt where home-court advantage could play a decisive role. Both teams are looking to climb the Summit League standings and build a case for a favorable seed in the conference tournament.
2. Team Form and Analysis:
South Dakota Coyotes: The Coyotes enter this contest as a perfectly average team, at least on paper. Their .500 record reflects a season of inconsistency, with solid wins often followed by disappointing losses. Based on the high game total set by oddsmakers, their identity appears to be built around an offense that can put up points but is often let down by a defense that struggles to get stops. As the visiting team, their primary challenge will be to overcome their documented road woes and find a way to disrupt an Omaha team that plays with more confidence on its home floor.
Omaha Mavericks: The Mavericks come in with a slightly sub-.500 record but hold the significant advantage of playing at Baxter Arena. The market has identified them as strong favorites, pointing to a belief in their ability to control this game. Like their opponents, Omaha seems to be an offense-first squad, a conclusion supported by a game total exceeding 160 points. Their challenge has been translating offensive production into consistent victories, but their strong average margin of victory at home suggests that when they win in their own building, they tend to do so decisively. No significant injuries have been reported for either team, setting the stage for a full-strength conference battle.
3. Standings & Trends Analysis:
A deep dive into the performance data reveals critical trends that paint a clearer picture than the overall records alone.
South Dakota Coyotes:
- Overall Record: 10-10 (50.0%)
- Overall ATS: 9-8-0 (52.9%). They play remarkably close to the number, with an average ATS margin of just -0.2, indicating games are typically as competitive as the spread suggests.
- Away ATS: 3-5-0 (37.5%). This is the most glaring statistic for South Dakota. On the road, their performance plummets. They fail to cover the spread by an average of -4.1 points per game and lose these contests by a staggering average of 20.1 points.
Omaha Mavericks:
- Overall Record: 9-11 (45.0%)
- Overall ATS: 6-10-0 (37.5%). As a whole, the Mavericks have been a poor bet this season, failing to cover in over 60% of their games.
- Home ATS: 2-3-0 (40.0%). While still a losing record against the spread, there’s a crucial detail here. Despite an ATS margin of -2.3, their average margin of victory in home games is a very strong +10.7 points. This indicates they win comfortably at home, but oddsmakers have occasionally set lines that are slightly too high.
Over/Under: The provided data does not include Over/Under records. However, the game total is set at a very high 160.5, implying that both teams play at a fast pace and/or lack defensive prowess.
4. Betting Odds Analysis:
- Moneyline: Omaha -290 | South Dakota +225
- Point Spread: Omaha -6.5 (-110) | South Dakota +6.5 (-110)
- Total (Over/Under): 160.5o (-106) / 160.5u (-114)
The betting lines tell a clear story. The -290 moneyline on Omaha implies a win probability of approximately 74.4%, establishing them as the heavy favorite. The 6.5-point spread confirms this, requiring the Mavericks to win by at least three possessions to cover. The most intriguing number is the total of 160.5 points. This is an exceptionally high total for a college basketball game, signaling that oddsmakers are anticipating a high-scoring track meet with minimal defensive resistance.
5. Prediction & Betting Angle:
This matchup presents a classic betting dilemma: a home team that wins but doesn’t cover consistently versus a road team that performs terribly against the number away from home.
While Omaha’s 40% home ATS record is far from inspiring, it’s South Dakota’s abysmal road data that cannot be ignored. The Coyotes don’t just lose on the road; they get blown out, losing by an average of over 20 points and failing to cover the spread by more than four points per game. That is a powerful, predictive trend.
Omaha, for all their ATS struggles, wins home games by an average of 10.7 points. That figure provides a significant buffer over the -6.5 spread. In a battle between two poor ATS teams, we must side with the trend that is most extreme. In this case, it’s the Coyotes’ inability to compete on the road. The Mavericks’ demonstrated ability to win comfortably at Baxter Arena is the deciding factor. We’re laying the points with the home favorite.
Final Score Prediction: Omaha 85, South Dakota 76
The Pick: Omaha -6.5 (-110)
Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.
Sources:
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