1. Game Overview:
The Atlanta Hawks travel to TD Garden for an Eastern Conference clash against the Boston Celtics on January 28th at 7:40 PM EST. This matchup features two teams heading in different directions in the standings, but both will be navigating significant absences from their star players. Fans can watch the national broadcast on ESPN or stream it via NBA League Pass.
2. Team Form and Analysis:
Atlanta Hawks:The Hawks enter this contest as a sub-.500 team struggling to find consistency. Their identity is typically built around a high-octane offense, but they will be without their two primary engines. The losses of All-Star guards Trae Young and Dejounte Murray to injury are catastrophic, removing the team’s top two scorers and playmakers. Without them, the offensive burden will fall on players like Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, though both are listed as game-time decisions. Atlanta’s primary weakness has always been on the defensive end, and without their offensive firepower to compensate, they face an uphill battle to keep pace with quality opponents.
Boston Celtics:The Celtics have established themselves as a premier team in the East, boasting a formidable 29-17 record. Their success is built on elite talent, depth, and a versatile defense. However, they are facing their most significant injury challenge of the season. Boston will be without its top scorer and franchise cornerstone, Jayson Tatum, as well as star center Kristaps Porzingis. This places immense pressure on Jaylen Brown to be the undisputed number-one option, with defensive stalwarts Jrue Holiday and Derrick White needing to increase their offensive production. While the Celtics still possess a more proven supporting cast than the Hawks, the absence of their two leading scorers will test the limits of their system and depth.
3. Injury Report:
Both teams are severely impacted by injuries. The provided report lists several key players under incorrect team designations; the analysis below assumes the player’s status is correct, but the team affiliation in the report was a data-entry error.
- Atlanta Hawks: PG Trae Young (Knee) and PG Dejounte Murray (Achilles) are expected to be out, gutting the Hawks’ backcourt. SF Zaccharie Risacher (Knee) is also out. SG Bogdan Bogdanovic (Hamstring) and SF De’Andre Hunter (Knee) are listed as game-time decisions.
- Boston Celtics: PF Jayson Tatum (Achilles) and C Kristaps Porzingis (Achilles) are expected to be out, removing the team’s top two offensive threats. C Neemias Queta (Illness) and PF Luka Garza (Illness) are game-time decisions.
4. Standings & Trends Analysis:
Atlanta Hawks (23-25):
- Overall: The Hawks have a losing record and a net-negative margin of victory (-0.9), reflecting their struggles this season.
- ATS: They are an even 24-24 (50%) against the spread (ATS) overall. However, they have been a profitable team to back on the road, boasting an impressive 15-11 ATS record away from home.
- Over/Under: The total has gone Over in 52.1% of their games (25-23), suggesting a slight lean towards higher-scoring contests.
Boston Celtics (29-17):
- Overall: The Celtics have a strong 63% win percentage and a dominant +6.7 average margin of victory.
- ATS: Despite their winning ways, they have been a frustrating team for bettors at home, posting a losing 10-11 ATS record at TD Garden. Their overall ATS record is a solid 25-21.
- Over/Under: Boston games have a strong tendency to stay Under the total, with a 19-27 Over/Under record (58.7% Under). This highlights their defensive prowess and disciplined pace.
5. Betting Odds Analysis:
- Moneyline: Celtics -250 | Hawks +205
- Point Spread: Celtics -6.5 (-114) | Hawks +6.5 (-106)
- Total: 230.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
The odds still position the Celtics as firm home favorites, with the -250 moneyline implying a 71.4% probability of winning the game outright. The 6.5-point spread is significant, especially given Boston is without Jayson Tatum and Kristaps Porzingis. This indicates that the market believes the Hawks’ injuries (Trae Young and Dejounte Murray) are even more devastating. The high total of 230.5 seems to be based on both teams’ offensive reputations rather than the reality of who will be on the court.
6. Prediction & Betting Angle:
This game is a true test of depth. While the Celtics are missing their two best players, their remaining core of Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White is vastly superior to what the Hawks can field without Young and Murray. Boston should win this game at home.
However, laying 6.5 points is a risky proposition. As noted in the trends analysis, the Celtics have been poor at covering spreads at home (10-11 ATS), while the Hawks have been excellent at covering on the road (15-11 ATS). This strong historical data, combined with Boston’s depleted offense, suggests Atlanta can keep the game closer than the spread indicates.
The most compelling angle is the game total. The line of 230.5 is far too high for a game missing four of its top offensive players in Tatum, Porzingis, Young, and Murray. The Celtics have a powerful trend towards the Under (58.7% on the season) and will likely lean on their defensive identity to grind out a win. Atlanta’s offense, meanwhile, will be a shell of its former self. This creates a perfect scenario for a lower-scoring affair.
Final Score Prediction: Celtics 111, Hawks 106
The Pick: Under 230.5 (-110)
Disclaimer: This article is for entertainment purposes only. All betting information is provided for informational purposes and is not a recommendation to wager.
Sources:
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head in the NBA Regular …
2025-26 Team Comparison – Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics …
Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks Head-to-Head in the NBA Regular …
Boston Celtics vs Atlanta Hawks Basketball Head To Head, Score …
Atlanta Hawks vs Boston Celtics History – NBA
Hawks Record Vs Celtics This Season | StatMuse
Lakers vs. Celtics: Defense & distance in a renewed rivalry | NBA.com
Atlanta Hawks Game Logs Vs Celtics | StatMuse
Celtics vs. Magic first-round playoff preview, odds, prediction – NBC …
NBA Team Standings & Stats | NBA.com