The UFC returns to Sin City this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a pay-per-view fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom that will see out the year of 2024 in style!
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC 310 preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Evloev & Over 1.5 (-170)
- Luque ML (+130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Movsar Evloev vs. Aljamain Sterling
UFC 310 Featherweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 7, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at the T-Mobile Arena
Movsar Evloev
Five years and eight fights later, Russia’s Movsar Evloev has remained undefeated while also gradually climbing the 145-pound rankings to become a legitimate contender in a talent-stacked division.
While he lacks the flare of theatrics we like to see from rising contenders, his work rate and elite skills have allowed him to walk through the likes of Dan Ige, Arnold Allen, and Diego Lopes in recent years, as Saturday’s contest versus the former bantamweight champion could be his final ticket to receiving a title opportunity against the division’s superstar and current champ, Ilia Topuria.
- Evloev Pro Record: 18-0
- Evloev KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Evloev Submission Wins: 4
Aljamain Sterling
Aljamain Sterling showcased his talents at 135lbs until Sean O’Malley stopped the hype. He’s always been large for the division, so a move to featherweight made sense, and if there’s one route to skipping the queue and lining yourself right back into title contention but in another division, stomping on Evoloev’s undefeated record is possibly the speediest fast track available.
For the most part, Sterling has been a strong wrestler who’s utilized a distance kickboxing game as a mere backup. However, now faced with one of the featherweight division’s most ruthless grapplers, his paths to victory could be more limited than usual.
- Sterling Pro Record: 24-4
- Sterling KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Sterling Submission Wins: 8
Evloev vs. Sterling: Fight Tape Analysis
Sterling isn’t lost in striking battles, most notably in clashes versus fellow wrestlers like Henry Cejudo, which is where he’s really shined. Unfortunately, the featherweight division doesn’t give him the size and power threat, and if he chooses to wrestle Evloev, finishing those shots will be incredibly difficult.
Evloev’s standup is rather basic, and I’ll be interested to see if he attempts any takedowns of his own. He might not need the grappling. After all, his fundamental offensive and defensive striking tools will pose significantly more danger than Sterling’s seen of late, more so than Calvin Kattar because Evloev won’t have to worry about defending takedowns so much.
UFC 310 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
I struggle to envision a world where Sterling has a clear path to victory. His cardio has been questionable in the past, and consistently wrestling for fifteen minutes versus a broad featherweight doesn’t seem viable. Striking seems like the only valid option without risking too much, but then we cannot trust him to deliver a clear-cut performance in this area.
The UFC odds make Evloev a betting favorite, and I completely agree with the pricing. Sterling can handle many featherweights, but Evloev’s versatile style, credible cardio, and seemingly indestructible chin aren’t one of them.
This bout will present some closely fought moments. Still, as the pressure of Evloev begins to wear on Sterling, the Russian should have no problem overtaking the scorecards in the later rounds, as bettors should feel comfortable backing his moneyline and the over 1½ rounds to boost the odds from the overly juiced territory.
Evloev & Over 1½ Rounds: Supporting UFC 310 Facts
- Evloev is undefeated in pro MMA (18-0)
- Evloev has won all 8 of his UFC bouts by decision
- Sterling has seen over 1½ rounds in 5 of his last 6 UFC bouts
UFC Pick: Evloev & Over 1.5 (-170) [1.70u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Vincente Luque vs. Themba Gorimbo
UFC 310 Welterweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, December 7, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at the T-Mobile Arena
Vincente Luque
Vincente Luque isn’t the same fighter he once used to be, they say. The evidence? Losses against two top-ranked opponents and the current champion. Please! The Brazilian BJJ black belt and renowned heavy-hitter has been fighting the best of the best in the UFC’s welterweight division has had to offer for over a decade… And he isn’t done yet!
There are concerns about his health (Brain bleed), and the fact that he retired from the sport to then return does put an asterisk around his intentions. That said, we’re talking about a fighter whose fight intelligence has rarely been questioned, and when it comes to toughness, cardio, and all-around skill sets, he’s still one of the finest.
- Luque Pro Record: 22-10-1
- Luque KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Luque Submission Wins: 8
Themba Gorimbo
Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson may have purchased a house for Themba Gorimbo, and in turn, the UFC might have drip-fed him some easy opponents to capitalize on the marketing, but the fun ride comes to an end this weekend, as the three-fight win streak of ‘The Answer’ faces its biggest test to date.
Much like his weekend opponent, Gorimbo is versatile, durable, and, to his credit, has a positive UFC record (4-1). However, we just haven’t seen him fight versus elite-level opposition, and a loss in his promotional debut versus a very average AJ Fletcher still doesn’t sit right with me, especially now that he’s facing an elite welterweight in Luque.
- Gorimbo Pro Record: 14-4-0
- Gorimbo KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Gorimbo Submission Wins: 6
Luque vs. Gorimbo: Fight Tape Analysis
Outside of his UFC debut in 2015, Vincente Luque’s octagon losses involve former champions, title challengers, or top-five ranked foes. The man hasn’t lost a competitive bout outside of those when competing in the top-15, and when you realize he’s been a top-ranked welterweight since 2016 with a knockout win over the current champion, said streak at 170lbs becomes more impressive.
Joaquin Buckley blasted through Luque in his last fight, and this was a heavy-hitting, aggressive, younger opponent. Gorimbo doesn’t present such dangers. In fact, the game plan should be exactly that, but we haven’t seen him fight like this, and for the most part, he loves to shoot takedowns.
Good luck shooting takedowns as opposed to the BJJ black belt of Luque, who’s finished five UFC bouts by submission. More to the point, he isn’t some young up-and-comer, but he’s been scheduled like one versus low-level opposition thus far. The step up in competition is huge, and yes, Gorimbo can defeat many unranked fighters, but Luque? I don’t see it.
As previously touched on, Gorimbo would need to enter the octagon and go wild in the first round, in my opinion, to find any success. A technical chess battle versus the slick, heavy-handed Luque, who’s equally talented in grappling as he is striking, isn’t an easy night for The Rock’s favorite fighter.
UFC 310 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Luque a betting underdog. This could be the gift of the weekend in terms of betting lines. Although +130 isn’t extravagant, I don’t understand how an untested, 33-year-old Gorimbo is the guy that public bettors are picking to defeat an elite-level fighter who’s been proven versus top-tier competition for the last decade.
Luque ML: Supporting UFC 310 Facts
- Gorimbo hasn’t defeated a top-15-ranked opponent
- Luque hasn’t lost versus a non-ranked opponent in 9 years
- Luque has won 15 UFC bouts
UFC Pick: Luque ML (+130) [1u returns 1.3u profit] at Bet365
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.