The UFC travels to The Great White North this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for an Alberta fight card stacked with up-and-coming talent from top to bottom.
Time is of the essence, so let’s not waste it and dive right into my most noteworthy betting picks and analysis for UFC Edmonton’s preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Jasudavicius by Decision (-110)
- Zahabi ML (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Ariane Da Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
UFC Edmonton Women’s Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Rogers Place
Ariane Da Silva
One of Canada’s own will feature on Saturday’s UFC Edmonton preliminary card, and with a 5-2 UFC record, including one previous victory (vs. Miranda Maverick) on Canadian shores under the UFC banner, Jasmine Jasudavicius will be confident in keeping the win streak alive as she faces a well-experienced name in Ariane Lipski Da Silva.
- Da Silva Pro Record: 17-9-0
- Da Silva KO/TKO Wins: 6
- Da Silva Submission Wins: 4
Jasmine Jasudavicius
Brazil’s Da Silva has struggled with consistency since joining the promotion in 2019, and she’ll enter hostile territory this weekend with a 6-6 promotional record. However, winning 3 of her previous 4 appearances is a positive outlook on paper, so she’ll undoubtedly be looking to thrive and prove the oddsmakers wrong as a +170 underdog.
- Jasudavicius Pro Record: 11-3-0
- Jasudavicius KO/TKO Wins: 2
- Jasudavicius Submission Wins: 2
Da Silva vs. Jasudavicius: Fight Tape Analysis
Da Silva, also known as “The Queen of Violence,” may have the Muay Thai skills to warrant such a nickname, but none of her six career knockout victories were obtained in the UFC. In fact, just one of her six UFC wins was achieved inside the distance, and this could prove to be a problem when faced with an excellent point fighter in Jasudavicius.
It’s no secret that Jasudavicius has thrived against opponents lacking takedown defense. To date, the Canadian’s lone two career defeats were caused by the opposition’s neutralization of her dangerous offensive wrestling/grappling.
We cannot deny Da Silva’s emphatic striking offense; honestly, she’s delightful to watch during kickboxing exchanges. Unfortunately, Jasudavicius presents a stylistic matchup that, when you review Da Silva’s past fights of a similar nature, she’s never been able to overcome.
I expect the hometown woman to remove Da Silva’s most potent weapon, offensive striking, by delivering a pressure-based wrestling attack that’s been potent throughout her career and one that’s seen her dominate better defensive grapplers than Da Silva such as Maverick.
UFC Edmonton Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds with OddsTrader’s top sportsbooks makes Jasudavicius a significant betting favorite, which is problematic for anyone seeking value within the -200 range.
However, as the Canadian doesn’t have the greatest knockout potential, and Da Silva’s BJJ is credible enough to keep herself from getting submitted, betting the favorite to win by decision feels like a valid betting approach and one that always favors a national competing in their home country when UFC judges are involved.
Jasudavicius by Dec: Supporting UFC Edmonton Facts
- 80% of Jasudavicius’ UFC wins (5) came by decision
- Jasudavicius has won 6 of her previous 9 pro-MMA bouts by decision
- Da Silva has gone the distance in 3 of her previous 4 UFC bouts
UFC Pick: Jasudavicius by Decision (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Aiemann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz
UFC Edmonton Bantamweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, November 02, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at Rogers Place
Aiemann Zahabi
As the brother of Firas Zahabi, the famed coach of George St-Pierre, and one of the brightest minds in mixed martial arts, we’ve watched Aiemann Zahabi evolve his game under the tutelage of his bro and turn a 2-fight losing streak in 2019 into a four-fight winning streak in his most recent appearances.
With his native country in support, Zahabi enters the most important fight of his career. It’s a make-or-break situation at age 36. He faces a 135lb rankings mainstay in Munhoz, who’s fought the who’s-who at bantamweight throughout his UFC tenure, and victory would give the Canadian hope of finally reaching the division’s top rankings.
- Zahabi Pro Record: 11-2
- Zahabi KO/TKO Wins: 5
- Zahabi Submission Wins: 3
Pedro Munhoz
Brazil’s Pedro Munhoz has one of the finest resumes in bantamweight division history regarding the level of talent he’s faced. Unfortunately, he’s lost to those heavy hitters, including Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, Marlon Vera, Kyler Phillips, Dominick Cruz, and Aljamain Sterling.
It’s worth mentioning that none of the elite competitors could finish Munhoz, although time waits for no man, and at 38, he’s seemed like a former shell of himself in the octagon of late.
- Munhoz Pro Record: 20-9
- Munhoz KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Munhoz Submission Wins: 9
Zahabi vs. Munhoz: Fight Tape Analysis
Munhoz is known for his phone-booth boxing in close quarters and violent low kicks at a distance. As he’s consistently fought an elite level of competition, it’s difficult to say those traits are fading, but with that said, the Munhoz of old, who seemed to be much faster and reactive to his opponent’s offense, is incomparable to the Munhoz that lost every round to Kyler Phillips earlier this year.
Zahabi needs to control the distance and avoid close exchanges with Munhoz, and I believe he can dictate the striking numbers and damage inflicted as the more powerful striker of the two. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some cage control and grappling mixed in, although I expect him to play the distance striking game as a viable path to victory for the aging Munhoz.
UFC Edmonton Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
While Zahabi doesn’t have the renowned names Munhoz has on his record, he does have four straight victories over some serious levels of competition, such as Ricky Turcios, Aoriqileng, and Javid Basharat. The latter of whom he handed his first pro career defeat as a +575 underdog earlier this year.
Munhoz’s career defeats aren’t anything to turn our noses up at, but as a fighter who’s won two fights since 2019, it’s safe to say his best days are behind him. I don’t have confidence in Munhoz securing a clear-cut victory, and should this fight go to the judges, we know the Canadian hometown cooking from the judges won’t be far away.
Give me Zahabi on the moneyline for a respectable -110 price.
UFC Pick: Zahabi ML (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.