Saturday afternoon is a classic time for a high-profile SEC matchup.
Georgia plays Ole Miss at this time, and you’ll want to get in on the action.
The top sports betting sites have released an over/under for this game that remains under 60 points. I think that this will be a higher-scoring game.
NCAAF Pick: Over 55 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, November 09, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Is Georgia’s Offense Struggling?
There are rumblings within Georgia’s fanbase about the quality of Georgia’s offense. Should we allow those rumblings to inform our betting decision?
Those rumblings center on Carson Beck. Relative to last year, Beck is throwing more interceptions, completing passes at a fewer rate, and struggling more in general.
While it is true that Beck isn’t playing as well as he was last year, we have to look at the broader picture. The broader picture is something that we can describe by answering one question: is Beck’s decline in performance affecting how many points Georgia scores per game? The answer is “no.”
In each of the Bulldogs’ last five games, Georgia has scored 30 points or more.
When I say that I want to wager on the “over,” skeptics will immediately point to Beck’s decline in performance, and they will clearly be wrong to do so.
His performance against Alabama expresses what I mean. In that game, Georgia fell behind massively. With all of seven points at halftime, its offense looked dead. But then the Bulldogs came back, using big plays in their pass attack to score long and quick touchdowns.
While Beck threw three interceptions and barely completed over half his passes, he also amassed 439 yards.
Georgia’s Offense Gets Consistent Help
Georgia’s ability to score 27 points in a half against Alabama shows that its inconsistency and the ugly errors that guys like Beck commit do not pose a barrier to its ability to attain a high point total in a given game.
Skeptics will say that Alabama’s defense has had a lot of bad performances, such as when the Crimson Tide lost to Vanderbilt, which means that Georgia’s performance against it is unimpressive.
It is true that Alabama committed gross errors in the back end that Georgia’s pass attack was able to capitalize on. However, the Bulldogs’ streak of scoring 30+ points per game has even victimized Texas. Texas has the number one scoring defense. The Longhorns are one of two teams to allow fewer than twelve points per game.
Georgia’s offense got some help in this game to reach 30 points, but this help is something that Georgia’s offense can count on consistently. The Bulldogs forced Texas to turn the ball over multiple times. They scored a lot of points off those turnovers.
As evident when, against Florida last week, Georgia scored a touchdown off a seven-yard drive, turnovers are repeatedly an additional source of scoring for the Bulldogs.
Alabama anyhow ranks but a few spots behind Ole Miss in scoring defense, so Georgia’s ability to, primarily through one half of good offensive football, drop 34 points in Tuscaloosa already says a lot about what it can do offensively without the help of the turnovers that its defense forced against Texas.
Georgia’s Declined Defense
I like the “over” in this game because, while the Bulldogs have become a 30-point-a-game team, Ole Miss is going to score even more points in this game.
If you look at stats like scoring defense, total defense, and passing defense, then you’ll see that the Bulldogs’ defense has declined unequivocally this year.
In the offseason, Georgia lost cornerback Kamari Lassiter to the NFL. He is now a starter for the Houston Texans — he was that good for the Bulldogs that he could become an NFL starter after departing from Georgia.
Without Lassiter, the quality of Georgia’s secondary has taken a major hit. Opposing quarterbacks are picking on Georgia’s cornerbacks. Moreover, opposing quarterbacks are having time to throw because Georgia’s pass-rushers are often failing to arrive quickly enough to bring them down.
Outlook for Opposing Quarterbacks
When Georgia allowed 31 points to Mississippi State, Mississippi State quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. threw for over 300 yards.
This season, he has only performed better against an Arkansas defense that just allowed over 60 points to Ole Miss.
Jalen Milroe, for Alabama, had his best overall performance of the season against Georgia. He was highly efficient, threw for close to 400 yards, and amassed over 100 rushing yards.
Opposing quarterbacks are able to have their best games against Georgia’s declined defense. Georgia’s defense is only reliable against low-quality quarterbacks, like Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff, who struggle to throw for more than 100 passing yards in a game.
Jaxson Dart’s Outlook
Ole Miss’ Jaxson Dart is coming off a game in which, despite missing his top wide receiver Tre Harris who was listed as ‘questionable’ for the game and did not play, he threw for over 500 yards. While it was Arkansas’ defense that he annihilated, throwing for that many yards, especially without one’s top target is fairly unheard of.
Dart is clearly really good as a passer. As evident when he ran for over 100 yards against Georgia Tech last year, he also excels as a runner.
Especially at home, in what will be a juiced environment, he is going to channel his inner Milroe and extend his elite form by going off on Georgia’s defense.
With his passing and running ability, he will maybe not help Ole Miss score 63 points for a second straight week, but he will help the Rebels blow past 30 points.
The Takeaway
While we will see some ugliness from Georgia’s offense, we know that it won’t matter. Georgia has the big-play ability on offense to score 30 or more points on a consistent basis.
On defense, the Bulldogs don’t like facing mobile quarterbacks, but their defense has also declined significantly in general.
Ole Miss will score well over 30 points largely by riding Dart’s excellent form.
This game will see both teams score 30 or more points, so make sure to take it at -110 betting odds.
NCAAF Pick: Over 55 (-110) at Bet365
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