Women’s strawweight competitors Amanda Lemos and Virna Jandiroba headline this weekend’s UFC fight card, and I’m back covering all your betting needs for the event’s preliminary bouts.
Let’s waste no more time and dive into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Vegas 94 prelim action.
Picks Summary
- Loik Radzhabov ML (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Maverick & Over 1½ Rounds (-143) at Bet365
Loik Radzhabov vs. Trey Ogden
UFC Vegas 94 Lightweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, July 20, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Loik Radzhabov
“The Tajik Tank” Loik Radzhabov, three fights and one year into his UFC career, made his octagon presence known when a blistering right hook was the beginning of a TKO-end for Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady earlier this year.
Most interestingly, Loik opened as an underdog, and I believe that due to his failures in the lesser-talented fight promotion, PFL, he’s consistently overlooked on the betting lines, as he is again this weekend.
- Radzhabov Pro Record: 18-5-1
- Radzhabov KO/TKO Wins: 8
- Radzhabov Submission Wins: 5
Trey Ogden
Don’t get me wrong, Loik’s opponent, Trey Ogden, opened as the underdog. However, public opinion has shifted the line in favor of the Missouri native, who’s suffered some questionable defeats as a UFC competitor.
- Ogden Pro Record: 17-6
- Ogden KO/TKO Wins: 11
- Ogden Submission Wins: 6
UFC Vegas 94 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Loik is no world-beater, but when Ogden is matched with a respectable grappler, he notably struggles. I envision the physicality of “The Tajik Tank” preventing Ogden from running a wrestling game plan. In return, he owns a diverse enough skill set, which has historically been positive at winning rounds.
Ultimately, without the takedowns available, Ogden has struggled, and this isn’t so much a wager backing Loik but more so a betting pick that’s fading a one-dimensional fighting style.
UFC Pick: Radzhabov ML (-115) [1.15u returns 1u profit] at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Miranda Maverick vs. Dione Barbosa
UFC Vegas 94 Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, July 20, 2024 – 05:00 PM ET at UFC Apex
Miranda Maverick
Originally scheduled to face Tracy Cortez, we must recognize that Miranda Maverick was preparing for a much tougher opponent this weekend. Now, she’ll face an inexperienced grappler in Dione Barbosa, whose lack of preparation and elite-level experience could be detrimental.
Maverick is only 26 years old, and she still holds a positive 6-3 UFC record. Her skill set is consistently evolving, and the most important thing about this weekend’s contest is the fact that she’s fought and defeated much stronger opponents than Barbosa.
- Maverick Pro Record: 13-5
- Maverick KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Maverick Submission Wins: 7
Dione Barbosa
Barbosa made her UFC debut less than two months back. Although she collected a unanimous decision victory, she barely defeated an unknown 5-0-1 opponent, as we witnessed her show great efforts in round one before eventually fading.
- Barbosa Pro Record: 7-2-0
- Barbosa KO/TKO Wins: 0
- Barbosa Submission Wins: 3
Maverick vs. Barbosa Analysis
Maverick is jacked, physical, and, most imperatively, she has proven herself over 15 minutes and was recently training for a contest with Cortez at altitude. Round one with Barbosa will be difficult, but Maverick’s durability will keep her in this fight, and as rounds two and three approach, there will be a notable shift.
Looking at the Mavericks’ losses to date, we have a close split decision with Maybee Barber, a loss to Erin Blanchfield, and most recently, Jasmine Jasudavicious, the latter of which has aged pretty well. These women are levels above Barbosa, and previously, Maverick has flourished against anyone who isn’t well-rounded and consistent enough to see out a game plan for fifteen minutes.
UFC Vegas 94 Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
Maverick is a dog! Barbosa is also a menace, but only in the first round. I don’t believe the underdog has enough in the tank to score points consistently, and I envision a split decision siding with the biggest favorite at UFC Vegas 94.
A respectable durability from both women will lead this fight deep into the second round at least. While I wouldn’t rush to back Maverick on the moneyline, if you couple the ML with over 1½ rounds, it’ll boost our returns significantly.
Maverick & Over 1½ Rounds: Supporting UFC Vegas 94 Facts
- Five of Maverick’s six UFC wins were over 1½ rounds
- Maverick has gone the distance in 5 of her last 7 UFC bouts
- Barbosa has lost just one pro-MMA fight inside the distance (KO in 2019)
- Barbosa has gone the distance in 4 of her previous 5 MMA fights
UFC Pick: Maverick Win & Over 1½ Rounds (-143) [1.43u returns 1u profit] at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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