The UFC travels to Mile-High City this weekend, and we’re covering all your betting needs for a Colorado fight card stacked with top-ranked talent from top to bottom.
Let’s waste no more time and dive right into the most noteworthy betting picks for the UFC Denver preliminary card bouts.
Picks Summary
- Fremd/Petroski Under 2.5 Rounds (-144)
- Santos/Agapova Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Josh Fremd vs. Andre Petroski
UFC Denver Middleweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, July 13, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Josh Fremd
Josh Fremd returns to the cage following a brutal liver shot TKO at the hands of Roman Kopylov. Prior to this, he’d racked up two consecutive victories, but the jump in the competition was notable, as this middleweight will likely become just another journeyman at 185 lbs.
- Fremd Pro Record: 11-5-0
- Fremd KO/TKO Wins: 4
- Fremd Submission Wins: 4
Andre Petroski
On paper, Andre Petroski doesn’t seem like the type of fighter you’d be quick to fade. He began his UFC tenure with five consecutive wins and was submitting or knocking out most of the opponents the promotion threw his way.
Petroski’s fall from grace, however, has been real. Durability, cardio, and game-planning have looked absolutely shot in his two most recent appearances, as the 33-year-old’s stock has plummeted to the point where another loss inside the distance could result in his final octagon appearance.
Petroski Pro Record: 10-3-0
Petroski KO/TKO Wins: 4
Petroski Submission Wins: 4
Fremd vs. Petroski: Fight Tape Analysis
Petroski is often a firecracker in the first round, but as soon as the competition levels rose, starting with Gerald Meerschaert, he looked like half the fighter compared to his early outings. Speaking of which, cardio and at altitude? We cannot trust this man to survive 15 minutes in these conditions.
Petroski is heavy-handed, has a wrestling background, and a BJJ black belt can always come in handy. However, he doesn’t have the cardio beyond five minutes. Don’t let his round three success against can’s fool you!
Fremd is no world-beater, but he does train at altitude and has commendable skills across the board. This, alone, will be a huge advantage. In addition, he knows how to finish a fight, and with a limp, huffing, and puffing Petroski entering the second round, it’ll be his fight to lose.
UFC Denver Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC pricing with top-rated sportsbooks place this fight as a pick’em, and rightfully so. We have two lower-level middleweights returning from losses, and the red flags for both men are waving strongly.
Outright betting isn’t how we’re approaching this, though. Take the under and don’t think twice because we have two scenarios here. Either Petroski’s rampant first-round offense stops the fight early, or he fades, and Fremd forces the stoppage.
UFC Pick: Fremd/Petroski Under 2.5 Rounds (-145) [1.45u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Under 2.5 Rounds Supporting UFC Denver Facts
- Fremd has seen under 2 ½ rounds in 3 of his 4 UFC bouts.
- 8 of Fremd’s 11 pro career wins came by KO/TKO or submission.
- Petroski has gone the distance in 2 of his 7 UFC bouts.
- 8 of Petroski’s 10 pro career wins ended by KO/TKO or submission.
Luana Santos vs. Mariya Agapova
UFC Denver Women’s Flyweight Preliminary Bout
Saturday, July 13, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
Luana Santos
Brazil’s Luana Santos is beautiful and young, and she has dominated her first two UFC bouts since joining the promotion last December. What more could you ask for in a bidding flyweight prospect?
Santos’ only loss against an elite-level jiu-jitsu practitioner holds no shame; it was an incredibly close contest, and she’s since evolved. The ceiling for Santos seems high right now, as Saturday’s matchmaking feels like a layup for this highly marketable prospect.
- Santos Pro Record: 7-1-0
- Santos KO/TKO Wins: 1
- Santos Submission Wins: 3
Mariya Agapova
Many of the world’s mixed martial arts champions advocate for the importance of mental stability when competing at the highest level. Unfortunately for Mariya Agapova, she’s been linked with drug use, homelessness, and no active team or gym to train with, and these are huge causes for concern.
In addition to openly admitting she’s been sleeping on people’s sofas and the fact she has no money, Agopova lost two of three previous UFC bouts by submission and hasn’t competed for two years.
- Agapova Pro Record: 10-4-0
- Agapova KO/TKO Wins: 3
- Agapova Submission Wins: 5
Santos vs. Agapova: Fight Tape Analysis
For her downfalls, Agapova has a notable striking, and she will engage on the feet instantly. However, with looming questions around who she’s training with, which links to being unprepared, alongside some of the worst ground defenses in the division, it’s difficult to overlook the Brazilian’s chance of success this weekend.
Santos is large for the division and notably kept her same dominant streak as a bantamweight last time out. With the drop back to flyweight, the weight bully factor is incoming, and this will be a nightmare for Agapova on the ground.
UFC Denver Preliminary Card Odds & Prediction
The UFC odds have continuously seen Santos’ price skyrocket. She’ll enter Denver as a -400 favorite, a far cry from the opening price of -170. But there’s a reason for the line movement, and it’s more than likely due to Agapova’s evident struggles outside the cage.
That said, nobody in their right mind would bet -400 on Santos. The under 2 ½ rounds, however, is seemingly ripe for the taking with an opponent in Agapova who has bad cardio, terrible grappling and BJJ defense, with three losses on her record that each ended via KO/TKO or submission.
UFC Pick: Santos/Agapova Under 2.5 Rounds (-130) [1.3u returns 1u profit] at Bet365
Under 2 ½ Rounds: Supporting UFC Denver Facts
- All 3 of Agapova’s UFC losses were by KO/TKO or submission.
- Santos won her UFC debut via TKO.
- Santos has won 50% of her previous 6 pro-MMA bouts inside the distance.
- Agapova has won or lost inside the distance in 7 consecutive MMA bouts.
- Agapova hasn’t gone the distance since 2019.
- Agapova has gone the distance in just 3 of her 14 pro career bouts.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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