Week 14 started off with an unexpected shootout in Pittsburgh on Thursday night. I guess the Steelers and Patriots felt disrespected by the historically low total and decided to have their best offensive performances of the season in spite of it. Anyways, we’re onto the rest of the Week 14 slate on Sunday — which features several exciting games like the Rams vs Ravens, Bills vs Chiefs and Eagles vs Cowboys.
Here is my Week 14 parlay, which I made at FanDuel Sportsbook at better than 9/1 odds.
49ers -13.5 alternate spread (+122)
Broncos ML (+126)
Bills ML (+108)
Parlay odds: +943
San Francisco 49ers -13.5 (+122) over Seattle Seahawks
An astonishing 7 of San Francisco’s 9 wins this season have come by 18 points or more. That’s not just winning; that’s domination. In Week 13, the 49ers had a matchup with the Eagles in Philadelphia — which every analyst was calling the biggest test for the Niners. Well, San Francisco passed the test with flying colors. The Niners won 42-19, which marked their 4th straight win by double-digits. In response to their 3-game losing streak when Brock Purdy was dealing with a concussion, the Niners have won their last 4 games by 31, 13, 18 and 23 points. In fact, the 18-point win came against the Seahawks in Seattle on Thanksgiving. The 49ers have proven that they are the team to beat in the NFL, and right now nobody can come close to beating them.
Seattle’s most recent game was its best offensive performance of the season. Geno Smith passed for 334 yards and threw 3 touchdowns, Zach Charbonnet ran well and scored a touchdown and DK Metcalf had a career night with 134 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. Oddly enough, it came against one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, I think San Francisco’s defense is completely different from that of Dallas. The Niners are going to have constant pressure on Smith and I’m expecting a lot of 3-and-outs, so I’ll happily back the 49ers to blow out the Seahawks…again.
Denver Broncos ML (+126) over Los Angeles Chargers
Denver’s 5-game winning streak was snapped by CJ Stroud and the Texans last Sunday, but it wasn’t exactly a blowout. Russell Wilson led the Broncos down the field late in the 4th quarter and had 3rd-and-goal at Houston’s 8-yard line, but a 50-50 ball in the endzone went Houston’s way. If Denver comes down with it, it would have won the game and have 6 straight wins heading into Week 14. And although the Houston offense may be similar to that of Los Angeles, the defenses are light years apart. That’s where the Broncos have value, and why they could win this game outright.
Let’s discuss the elephant in the room. Yes, the Chargers allowed zero points in Week 13. However, it was against a Patriots offense with their backup quarterback and without Rhamondre Stevenson for nearly the entire game. Before that contest, the Chargers had allowed 20, 23 and 41 points in their last 3 games. The Los Angeles secondary is the worst in football and allows way too much space for receivers. That’s an aspect Wilson can exploit with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. The bottom line is the Broncos are surging and 1 loss won’t deter them, so they are attractive underdogs in Week 14.
Buffalo Bills ML (+108) over Kansas City Chiefs
I’m just going to come out and say it: this is the worst Chiefs team of the dynasty. At 8-4, the Chiefs are still going to go to the playoffs but the offense is nowhere close to what it used to be. There’s still Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but that’s about it. Besides those 2, Isiah Pacheco adds some value in the running game and Justin Watson has a few hero moments. However, the rest of the wide receiving corps is a huge problem. The Chiefs lead the NFL in dropped passes and Mahomes seems hesitant to throw deep passes to Marquez Valdes-Scantling of latel. It’s been the Kansas City defense that has kept the team in so many games, but the imbalance of the overall roster is starting to show. An 8-point loss to the Packers last week could be the start of a losing streak, especially with Buffalo up next in the schedule.
The Bills have had their own struggles this season, and lately they have been on the wrong side of close games. Fortunately for Buffalo, it had a bye in Week 13. That rest could prove to be an important factor on Sunday since the Bills are facing a Chiefs team that has played a lot of hard-fought games in recent weeks. Plus, the Bills’ offense is a lot better than Kansas City’s. Josh Allen has far more options on the outside than Mahomes, like Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis and Dalton Kincaid along with James Cook in the backfield. I’m expecting Allen to spread the ball out against the Chiefs’ defense and for him to frequently use his legs, so it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs’ offense keeping up.