The 2023 NFL season will be here before we know it. The marathon battle for the Lombardi Trophy begins on September 7 with Thursday Night Football featuring the Lions and Chiefs. Could that be a potential Super Bowl preview? If Detroit takes a step forward, it’s certainly possible.
With most of the offseason moves in the rearview mirror, it’s time to discuss a couple of futures bets in the NFL Most Passing Yards market. Looking at the odds, there are plenty of contenders across the board, making this a highly competitive field. Let’s take a look at the best bets to target before the season starts.
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NFL regular season most passing yards odds
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Patrick Mahomes (+250)
Justin Herbert (+650)
Joe Burrow (+800)
Josh Allen (+1100)
Kirk Cousins (+1100)
Tua Tagovailoa (+1400)
Trevor Lawrence (+1800)
Dak Prescott (+2000)
Jared Goff (+2500)
Derek Carr (+2800)
It’s not surprising to see most of the names at the top of this market. Patrick Mahomes is coming off one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from a quarterback, while Justin Herbert is only getting better in his fourth season in the NFL. Further down the line, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow both have plenty of weapons, but I don’t see either of them being serious contenders this season, especially now given Burrow’s calf injury. Kirk Cousins rounds out the top 5, as he has proven to be reliable when it comes to putting up passing yards. Further down the list, Dak Prescott will lead an explosive Dallas Cowboys offense, while Trevor Lawrence is poised for a breakthrough season in Jacksonville. Let’s get into our best bets for this market.
NFL passing yards leader best bet: Justin Herbert (+650)
Last season should have been Justin Herbert’s breakthrough campaign into the realm of elite quarterbacks, but he couldn’t quite get it done in the playoffs. And while he has the talent to be considered one of the best in the league by most fans and analysts, the Chargers QB needs to validate that talent with wins. Despite throwing for nearly 4,800 yards and racking up 25 touchdowns a season ago, Herbert is still getting better as a quarterback and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to succeed in Los Angeles. The Chargers’ defense has improved compared to a season ago, but I still wouldn’t expect it to be an elite unit. The Chargers’ aerial attack will still need to produce at a high level, and a new offensive coordinator should do wonders for Herbert’s confidence. The young phenom will have Austin Ekeler on his side out of the backfield, plus Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the outside.
Over his first 3 seasons, Herbert has completed over 66% of his passes while averaging nearly 32 touchdown passes in that span. Given that the Chargers should be in a number of close games in 2023, opportunities will be there for Herbert to pick up chunks of yards in 4th quarters and overtime. Another 5,000-yard season is certainly in the cards, making this our best bet.
NFL passing leader longshot bet: Jared Goff (+2500)
When looking for a longshot in this market, it makes sense to target a high-volume passer. Look no further than Jared Goff, who is a name that most people wouldn’t think of for this award, making it that much more compelling. Goff was quietly a top-10 quarterback last season by any advanced metric, and he finished with almost 4,500 yards passing in Ben Johnson’s scheme. The Lions ranked 5th in passing offense efficiency last year, and there’s no reason for that not to improve with Johnson returning as offensive coordinator. Detroit was also 28th in defensive DVOA last season, so it’s fair to expect that Lions games will be fast-paced and high-scoring. This price is simply too big, so I’m happy to take a shot on an effective passer who’s clearly undervalued in the market.
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