The Portland Trail Blazers (17-15) battle the Denver Nuggets (19-11) at Ball Arena Friday. Tip from the Mile High City is set for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Nuggets beat the Memphis Grizzlies 105-91 Tuesday. They covered as 1-point home underdogs, leading by 21 points after 1 quarter and holding on. Denver pushed its against-the-spread (ATS) record to 13-17 and it’s just 2-7 ATS over its last 9 games. The Nuggets’ weakness is in their defense, ranking 28th in opponents’ field goal percentage (48.7%).
The Trail Blazers lost 101-98 to the Oklahoma City Thunder Wednesday. failing to cover as 4-point favorites. The loss pushed their season-long ATS record to 20-12 but they are 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games. Portland has the league’s best 3-point shooting attack (38.9%).
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub Lines last updated at noon ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Trail Blazers +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Nuggets -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Trail Blazers +4.5 (-110) | Nuggets -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 232.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets key injuries
Trail Blazers
- G Damian Lillard (wrist) probable
- C Jusuf Nurkic (calf) probable
Nuggets
- G Jamal Murray (knee) questionable
- F Michael Porter Jr. (heel) questionable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets picks and predictions
Prediction
Trail Blazers 121, Nuggets 119
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Trail Blazers (+160) to win here, but I prefer to take the points and play the spread despite the enticing price-tag.
Against the spread
BET TRAIL BLAZERS +4.5 (-110).
The Blazers’ playmakers are too good for a Denver team that is as susceptible to shooters as any in the league. Portland is the best 3-point shooting team in the league, and Denver’s main weakness is effectively limiting shooters.
Portland has the league’s 2nd-best ATS record (20-12), only behind the 19-Sacramento Kings. Denver is just 13-17 ATS, although it is 7-6 ATS at home.
Denver is 2nd in field goal percentage and three-point field goal percentage but could be without its 2nd- and 4th-leading scoring threats. Regardless, its defense cannot be trusted against Lillard and G Anfernee Simons.
These teams have split 2 teams this season. Blazers won 135-110 the last time at Ball Arena (Oct. 24) while they lost 121-120 at home (Dec. 8), covering a 4.5-point spread in both games and should again. Back the TRAIL BLAZERS +4.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 232.5 (-110).
Portland has gone Over in 6 of its last 8 games. Given Denver’s weaknesses defensively coupled with the Trail Blazers’ skilled shotmakers, there’s no reason to think this matchup will be a low-scoring battle.
Both other meetings this season between the two teams have topped 240 points. The Nuggets are 5-6 O/U in their last 11 games. The offense should be there, especially considering what we’ve seen the last few times these teams have taken the court.
Back the OVER 232.5 (-110) for a partial unit.
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