Every skill player in Steelers vs Browns on Thursday Night Football has touchdown odds at plus money — no surprise with a 36.5 point total in typical AFC North fashion. However, that just gives us plenty of value in this market, so let’s get into my Steelers vs Browns touchdown scorer best bets for TNF. Meanwhile you can also find out our NFL picks on the side and total for this matchup and EVERY game throughout the 2024 season.
Steelers vs Browns anytime touchdown scorer pick: Jaylen Warren (+275)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
The Steelers are coming off an impressive win over the Baltimore Ravens while not scoring a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Browns fell to the Saints by a score of 35-14 in Jameis Winston’s return to New Orleans. They allowed 3 rushing touchdowns alone to gadget player Taysom Hill.
Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris continue to be a great 1-2 punch out of the backfield. Since Warren returned to full strength, he’s registered at least 10 touches in 4 straight games. His rushing attempts line hovers at 9.5 on multiple books, while Harris is at 17.5. You can find Harris to score at +105 on DraftKings, but Warren at +275 is the better pivot. The conditions call for rain, and we’re expected to see a heavy dose of the running game from the Steelers in a projected positive game script.
Steelers vs Browns anytime touchdown scorer pick: Elijah Moore (+475)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Cleveland Browns’ offense looks revitalized with Jameis Winston under center. He nearly threw for 400 yards last week in New Orleans, with 234 coming in the 1st half. Nick Chubb will be playing in his 5th game after returning from a gruesome knee injury he sustained against this same Steelers defense. He’s yet to break out or get a full workload, largely due to the Browns playing from behind. That said, I’m targeting wide receiver Elijah Moore, who is averaging a 22% target share with Winston under center.
Even in wet conditions, the Browns will most likely be in a pass-heavy game script. Over the last 3 games, the Steelers rank in the top 3 in time of possession. It likely won’t take long for the Browns to abandon the run game altogether, as they did in the 2nd half last week, with Chubb rushing the ball just 5 times. Moore reeled in his 1st touchdown of the year last week on a dart from Winston in the back of the end zone. Moore adjusted well to the ball and toe-tapped for the touchdown. At +475, I’m willing to take a flyer on Moore with Winston’s pass attempts line at 34.5.