The Denver Nuggets (4-3) and Oklahoma City Thunder (4-3) meet Thursday at Paycom Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET (NBA TV).
The Nuggets became the 1st team to lose to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday at Crypto.com Arena, falling 121-110 and failing to cover as 2.5-point favorites. Denver held an 8-point lead with 3:45 remaining in the 3rd quarter before giving up a 22-2 run.
The Thunder improved to 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last 4 games after covering as 3.5-point home favorites in a 116-108 win vs. the Orlando Magic Monday. G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored a game-high 34 points and is 4th in the NBA in points per game (31.5).
Nuggets at Thunder odds
- Moneyline (ML): Nuggets -260 (bet $260 to win $100) | Thunder +205 (bet $100 to win $205)
- Against the spread: -6.5 (-110) | Thunder +6.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 229 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Nuggets at Thunder key injuries
Nuggets
- G Bones Hyland (hip) questionable
- G Ish Smith (calf) questionable
Thunder
- C Chet Holmgren (foot) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Nuggets at Thunder picks and predictions
Prediction
Nuggets 119, Thunder 116
Moneyline
PASS.
The Nuggets (-260) moneyline is too high of a price to pay vs. 1 of the hottest teams in the league as the Thunder are 3-0 straight up in their last 3 games as underdogs. I would recommend betting on the spread or the total instead.
Against the spread
BET THUNDER +6.5 (-110).
The Thunder would be 7-0 ATS this season if it wasn’t for a failed cover as 9.5-point home underdogs in a 116-106 loss vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves Oct. 23.
Oklahoma City continues to be undervalued ATS as Gilgeous-Alexander’s play this season has made him a frontrunner for the Most Improved Player Award (6th-best odds at +1500). Take the points.
Over/Under
BET OVER 229 (-110).
The Over is 6-1 in Denver’s last 7 games after failing to cover the spread in its previous game and 3-0 in Oklahoma City’s last 3 games overall. The Over (227.5) hit in the last head-to-head meeting as the Nuggets won 122-117 at home Oct. 22 and I expect Thursday’s matchup to be played at a similar pace.