The Houston Astros (2-0) and New York Yankees (0-2) meet Saturday for Game 3 of their best-of-7 American League Championship Series. First pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 5:07 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze ‘s lines around the Astros vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
ALCS: Houston leads 2-0. The Astros won the regular-season series 5-2
The Astros won the AL West with an American League-best 106-56 record and nothing has slowed them down in the postseason. Over a 10-game stretch including playoff and regular-season contests Houston is 9-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in the month of October.
New York is likely glad to have left Minute Maid Park to continue this series on home turf in the Bronx. The Yankees struck out 30 times over Games 1 and 2 and they have fanned 57 times in 5 total games at Houston in 2022. Dating back to Sept. 10 the AL East champs are 11-3 — with 9.0 strikeouts per contest — over their last 14 games at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees at Astros projected starters
RHP Cristian Javier vs. RHP Gerrit Cole
Javier went 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA 0.95 WHIP 3.2 BB/9 and 11.7 K/9 through 148 2/3 IP over 30 regular-season games (20 starts).
- Allowed 1 run in 1 1/3 IP in Game 1 of the ALDS vs. Seattle Mariners; owns a 3.38 ERA across 21 1/3 career postseason innings
- Has clocked a 0.60 ERA in 15 career IP vs. New York (2020-22)
- Benefited from a .228 batting average on balls in play in the regular season
Cole made 33 regular-season starts going 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA 1.02 WHIP 2.2 BB/9 and 11.5 K/9 in 200 2/3 IP.
- Managed a 5-5 record 3.20 ERA and 14 HR allowed with 17 BB and 136 K across 101 1/3 IP in 16 home starts
- Has allowed 3 ER on 10 hits in 13 1/3 IP in the postseason; owns a career playoff ERA of 2.81 (99 1/3 IP)
- Has faced the Astros 3 times over the last 2 seasons: 23 IP 12 H 3 ER 4 BB 24 K; current Houston bats own an aggregate .559 OPS against him in all past meetings
Yankees at Astros odds
- Moneyline: Astros +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-200) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 5 Astros 3
Moneyline
New York is a lean but the prices are bracketing a leverage position on that side.
PASS.
Run line/Against the spread
BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+150).
In their last 7 home games against eventual playoff teams the Yankees have gone 6-1. All 6 wins have been by multiple runs.
Over/Under
The Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 Yankees-Astros games but Saturday’s contest has a slight Over lean to it.
Both bullpens are too far over their skis with fine surface numbers over recent weeks. There is some performance risk to Javier on the Houston side and some yielding-a-couple-homers risk to Cole on the New York side.
New York has smacked 18 HR over its last 12 games at Yankee Stadium.
Take the OVER 6.5 (-125).