The San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies continue their best-of-7 National League Championship Series Friday. First pitch for Game 3 at Citizens Bank Park is slated for 7:37 p.m. ET (FS1).
NLCS: tied 1-1
Regular-season series: Philadelphia won 4-3
San Diego bounced back from an opening-game setback with an 8-5 win in Game 2 Wednesday. The Padres had 13 hits — including 3 home runs — in piling up their most runs in a single home game since Aug. 10. The Friars now head on the road where they are 3-2 in the playoffs and 8-3 since Sept. 16.
The Phillies had a 3-game win streak snapped Wednesday to fall to 6-2 in the postseason. Philadelphia hurlers have compiled a 2.96 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over that stretch. The Phils ended the season on a long road trip and have only played 2 home games since Sept. 25. However they are 16-5 at Citizens Bank Park dating back to Aug. 22.
Padres at Phillies projected starters
RHP Joe Musgrove vs. LHP Ranger Suarez
Musgrove logged 30 starts in the regular season. He went 10-7 with 2.93 ERA 1.08 WHIP 2.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 over 181 IP.
- Has allowed 2 R on 7 H and 4 BB with 13 K through 13 IP over 2 starts this postseason
- Current Philadelphia bats own a whiff-heavy .613 OPS against him
Suarez logged a 10-7 record and a 3.65 ERA in 29 regular-season starts. He posted a 1.33 WHIP 3.4 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 155 1/3 IP.
- Notched a 3.15 ERA in the 2nd half
- Posted a 3.20 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the road vs. 4.27 ERA and 1.52 WHIP at home
- Allowed 1 R on 3 H and 5 K over 3 1/3 IP at the Atlanta Braves Oct. 11 in his only start this postseason
Padres at Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Padres -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Phillies -105 (bet $100 to win $105)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Padres at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5 Padres 4
Moneyline
Consider a line watch. The current tags are mostly dialed in but peg the Padres as being a tad overrated in this spot. Musgrove is gettable in the third time around and neither bullpen inspires a ton of confidence.
Philadelphia looked great over the last few weeks and at home against the Braves in the NLDS. A Phillies +100 play would have some leverage to it.
PASS but circle back later in the day.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS: a lot of juice to work around here.
Over/Under
The Phillies have had some 2nd-half slumps against righties. However those dry spells were without DH Bryce Harper who has come on strong to slash a 419/.455/.936 (1.390 OPS) during these playoffs.
Both starting pitchers had some situational good fortune that tamped down their ERAs this season. Musgrove for example pitched through a .277 batting average on balls in play a .238 BABIP in high-leverage situations and a .202 BABIP with runners in scoring position.
BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-105).