The New York Yankees and Houston Astros swing into the best-of-7 American League Championship Series Wednesday. First pitch at Minute Maid Park is slated for 7:37 p.m. ET (TBS).
Regular-season series: Houston won 5-2
New York advanced to the ALCS by winning the AL East with a mark of 99-63 and an ALDS triumph over the Cleveland Guardians in 5 games. Dating back to the final week of the regular season the Yankees have hit home runs in 9 straight games. Over that stretch New York has registered 17 round-trippers.
The Astros won the AL West with an American League-best 106-56 record and then swept the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS in 3 games. Over an 8-game stretch including playoff and regular-season contests Houston is 7-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
The Astros were 3-0 at home against the Yankees in the regular season with all 3 wins coming by fewer than 3 runs.
Yankees at Astros projected starters
RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Justin Verlander
Taillon made 32 regular-season starts. He went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA 1.13 WHIP 1.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 across 177 1/3 IP.
- Has allowed a .924 aggregate OPS against current Houston batters
- Owns a bloated 4.89 ERA over his last 151 IP away from Yankee Stadium
- Made his postseason debut as a reliever in Friday’s extra-inning game against Cleveland with 2 runs allowed on 3 hits and 0 outs recorded
Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA 0.83 WHIP 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 175 IP over 28 regular-season starts.
- Allowed 6 ER on 10 H over 4 IP vs. Seattle Oct. 11 last time out
- Career postseason: 3.62 ERA in 32 games (31 starts)
- Has held current Yankee batters to an aggregate .571 OPS in past meetings
Yankees at Astros odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-140) | Astros -1.5 (+112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)
Yankees at Astros picks and predictions
Prediction
Yankees 3 Astros 2
Moneyline
There is some mounting evidence that off-day rust is perhaps more corrosive than we might assume. The counter is that the Yanks played Tuesday and the traveling puts them at a disadvantage. However I’ll take the club that had OF Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton hit home runs last time out.
This isn’t a firm declaration New York will win against Verlander and Houston but the price is worth pulling the lever and playing for some plus money.
BACK THE YANKEES (+165).
Run line/Against the spread
Actually prefer a Yankees +1.5 wager in this opener but AVOID this RL action unless that tag for the visitors drops to -135.
Over/Under
The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 Yankees-Astros games.
Taillon at times has the stuff to turn power into pop-ups and Houston perhaps being rusty plays into an edge for Yankees hurlers. Verlander has an excellent history when pitching on long rest (2.89 ERA on 6 or more days of rest in his career 0.63 ERA in 7 such games this season).
Take the UNDER 6.5 (+100).