The Chicago Cubs (36-57) meet the Philadelphia Phillies (49-44) Saturday for the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubsvs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: The Cubs lead 1-0.
Who saw the Cubs winning 15-2 in Philadelphia Friday? Go ahead, I’ll wait. At least we nailed OF Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases (+115) with a first-inning homer. Not much else went right for the Phils last night.
RHP Kyle Gibson ran out of gas, and the Cubs punched the Phillies for 6 runs in the 5th inning and 8 more in 8th and 9th. It was just the Cubs’ 2nd win in their last 10 games.
The day for Cubs OF Nelson Velazquez started with a spot on the bench. It ended with 2 homers and 5 RBI as he came into the game as a pinch-hitter and went yard in each AB. How does Philly respond Saturday? Ace RHP Zack Wheeler will try to have a say.
Cubs at Phillies projected starters
RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Zack Wheeler
Stroman (2-5, 4.69 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 55 2/3 IP.
- Has been solid in 2 starts since returning from injury with 1 ER and 9 K over 8 1/3 IP against the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers.
- Had 5 starts against the Phillies in 2021 and went 2-3 with a 1.80 ERA and 22 K across 25 IP.
Wheeler (8-5, 2.89 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 through 99 2/3 IP.
- Has been great at home with a 5-2 record, 1.62 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 through 9 starts.
- The Cubs roughed him up for 4 ER in 5 2/3 IP with 6 K last July. That team looked much different, though.
Cubs at Phillies odds and lines
- Money line (ML): Cubs +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
Cubs at Phillies picks and predictions
Prediction
Phillies 5, Cubs 3
Money line
I’m confident enough to put -170 on the Phillies behind Wheeler at home. If you wanna go a half-unit there because of the juice – that’s cool.
Stroman has been pitching well, but he didn’t get through the 5th inning in either of his 2 most recent starts, and Wheeler is superb at home. Here’s another option to couple with that: I like UNDER 4.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS TOTAL RUNS (-135), and I might sprinkle on UNDER 3.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS TOTAL RUNS (+125).
Run line/Against the spread
Thirteen of the Phils’ last 15 wins have been by more than 1 run. With Wheeler on the bump and a likely angry home team PHILLIES -1.5 (+130) is at a good value.
Over/Under
The wind is blowing out to right-center field again at 9 mph. Schwarber is 3-for-7 lifetime against Stroman with no home runs. When those prop bets pop up closer to game time, you might look at his total bases again. Eight runs is doable, but it might be close.
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-120).
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